Vol. III No. 41 - Saturday October9 - October 15 2004
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Columns
HEADLINES [click on headline to view story]:

Your Health & Happiness

The Doctor's Consultation 

Agony Column

Camera Class by Snapshot

Money Matters

Life in the Laugh Lane

Your Health & Happiness:  Health promotion practitioners to converge on Chiang Mai

Autsadaporn Kamthai

An international conference promoting health will be held in Chiang Mai from October 20-23. Chiang Mai University’s Faculty of Nursing, the University of Michigan, University of Washington, University of Seattle, University of Sydney and Thai Health Promotion Foundation are co-sponsors of the “Health Promotion: Evidence, Practice and Policy” conference, to take place at the Pang Suan Kaew Hotel.

Assoc Prof Rattanawadee Chontawan (left), deputy dean of CMU’s Nursing Faculty, Assoc Prof Wipada Kunaviktikul (middle), dean of CMU’s Nursing Faculty and Asst Prof Achara Sukonthasarn, associate dean for international relations, CMU’s Faculty of Nursing at the press conference.

About 700 health promotion officers are expected from Japan, the United States, Australia, Korea, Canada, Hong Kong, China, Taiwan, Mongolia, Switzerland, South Africa, Scotland and Thailand will take part, according to the dean of CMU’s Nursing Faculty, Assoc Prof Wipada Kunaviktikul.

The main objectives of the conference are to provide an opportunity to explore health promotion evidence in diverse contexts, enable participants to have dialogue about the health promotion practices for the encouragement of healthy life-styles, create supportive environments for health, strengthen community action, reorienting health services to place primary focus on promoting health and preventing disease, and develop public policies for health. More importantly, it will also provide occasion for the creation of collaborative relationships.

“Renowned keynote speakers will include experts from the World Health Organization in Geneva and the China Medical Board of New York and co-organizer universities,” Prof Wipada said.

Next month’s conference is the second focusing on health promotion. The previous one was held in 2001. “The first conference focused on health promotion at individual and theoretical levels, but the upcoming conference will be geared to families and communities to develop policies to advocate positive change and emphasize evidence basis and practice,” Wipada said.

Over 200 research papers dealing with health promotion will be presented during the conference. Participants will visit the traditional Thai massage school at Tambon Haiya, Chiang Mai, spa enterprises, public health centers in local villages and organic foods production to learn about health promotion in Thailand.

For further information, contact Asst Prof Achara Sukonthasarn, Associate Dean for International Relations, CMU’s Faculty of Nursing on 0-5394-9102.


The Doctor's Consultation: Prostate Cancer - what are the options?

by Dr. Iain Corness

All in one week, three of my friends contacted me to say they had prostate cancer. They range in age between 50 and 70. One has had the operation to remove the prostate gland completely, the second is waiting till November to have his prostate removed, while the third has gone to Europe, hoping for a miracle cure.

Prostate cancer is also extremely common; in the United States this year almost 180,000 men will be told that they have prostate cancer. The figures are that by age 50, about one-third of American men have microscopic signs of prostate cancer. By age 75, half to three-quarters will have some cancerous changes in their prostate glands.

Does this mean that life ends at 76? Fortunately no. Most of these cancers stay within the prostate, producing no signs of symptoms, or are so slow-growing that they never become a serious threat to health.

In other words, you may die of something else before the prostate gets you! We should never forget that the death rate will always be the same - one per person. We all have to die of something - even me, and I just hope it isn’t from boredom!

While the numbers quoted above look fearsome, the real situation is not quite so bad. A much smaller number of men will actually be treated for prostate cancer. About 16 percent of men will be diagnosed with prostate cancer during their lives; 8 percent will develop significant symptoms; but only 3 percent will die of the disease. Put another way, 97 percent won’t die from prostate cancer.

While prostate cancer can be ‘aggressive’, attacking other tissues, including bone, the great majority of prostate cancers are slow growing, and it can be decades between the early diagnosis and getting symptoms.

Let’s get diagnosis and the “blood test” out of the way first. The blood test is called Prostate Specific Antigen, or PSA for short. PSA unfortunately is not a go/no-go test. A normal range result doesn’t guarantee you haven’t got it, and an elevated result doesn’t automatically mean that you are about to claim early on your life insurance.

Prostate cancer can only be fully diagnosed by examining prostate tissue under the microscope. When your doctor suspects prostate cancer on the basis of your symptoms, or the results of a digital rectal examination (DRE), and/or a PSA test - the definitive diagnosis needs biopsy.

So let’s imagine your biopsy is positive. What are the options? Actually very many and depend mainly upon the ‘stage’ of the cancer and your age at the time of diagnosis.

‘Staging’ has four main grades. Stage I cannot be felt but is diagnosed through pathological testing. Stage II can be felt, but it is confined to the prostate. Stage III is coming out of the gland and Stage IV has grown into nearby tissues.

Treatment can be ‘watch and wait’, surgery, radiation, hormone therapy, eating herbs or muttering mantras. Often it will be a combination of some of the above (but I’d forget the mantras).

You need to discuss your options with your doctor. If you are a young man with stage IV, then you have to make up your mind quickly. But if you are 75 with stage I or II, then you have more time, as you will most likely die of other causes before the prostate gets you.

‘Watch and Wait’ has much going for it, but you must be prepared to get to know your urologist on first name terms. You will be seeing a lot of him over the years!


Agony Column

Dear Hillary,
You blew it, so to speak, when you advised Victor V to tell his girlfriend to back off. Victor has had a long and happy life and he is going to have to go sometime in the not too distant future anyway, so why not go using up a triple Viagra? Can you think of a better way? I certainly can’t!
Blaze of Glory

Dear Blaze of Glory,
Where were you at The Alamo, Petal? Standing there holding the flagpole no doubt, when Davy Crockett was killed by the burritos and taco-eaters, going out in your supposed ‘blaze of glory’. Coming back to today and my advice to Viagra Victor a couple of weeks ago, I hardly think that collapsing after a sweaty chemically enhanced encounter, while holding his flagpole, could be called going out in a blaze of glory either. I’m sure Mr. Crockett with his raccoon tailed hat could have thought of better ways to go too. For me, a surfeit of chocolates and champagne would be infinitely better as a final choice, but then I keep my brain between my ears, and not in my knickers, so perhaps I don’t really understand at all!
Dear Hillary,
I am a foreigner here and have noticed that many Thai people walk around with a five baht coin stuck in their ear. Is there some reason for this? I have seen it many times.
Ear Today

Dear Ear Today,
As you are ‘ear today’ and will certainly be ‘gone tomorrow’, I’ll be quick, my Petal. There is a reason. It is so that if they lose all their money (mislaid of course, as there is no gambling in this country) then they will still have enough money to catch a ‘song taew’ home. With you being a foreigner, you would probably have to roll a twenty baht note up your nostril, just to be sure!
Dear Hillary,
I’ve been reading your articles for several months and I do commend you for your advice and wisdom. I have questions that you may help me with. Occasionally when I do go to the bars, I overhear some bar girls calling other obviously drunk farangs “kwai”. When I ask them what it means, they giggle and get defensive and refuse to answer my question. What is “kwai” and its meaning?
Why Kwai

Dear Why Kwai,
Thank you, Petal, for the kind words. They are always very welcome (especially when attached to a bottle of bubbly or chocolates - not that you should look at this as a hint). ‘Kwai’ literally means ‘Buffalo’ but when applied to drunken farangs means “thick, heavy, stupid, ugly and ignorant”. Which aptly describes drunken anyones, not only farangs, in Hillary’s opinion. Don’t let this happen to you. You have been warned. Behind the welcoming smiles and the calls of “Hello sexy man!” there can be the tongue of the viper (old Liverpudlian proverb).
Dear Hillary,
My six year old puts on tantrums before going to school because she says the teacher does not like her. This behaviour only started recently after she was disciplined for throwing food in the classroom, but I have to admit I am not sure of what to do next. Bribing her with treats does not sound the right way. Have you any ideas, Hillary?
Worried Mum

Dear Worried Mum,
This is an easy one, Mum. Ignore these tantrums (in fact always ignore all tantrums), wear ear plugs if necessary and don’t give her food to take to school. If she goes hungry for a day or two she may then want to eat her lunch rather than throw it around (as long as it is not those dreadful soggy tomato and lettuce sandwiches). When the behaviour improves then reward her with sandwiches of her own choosing, and involve her in helping to make them in the mornings. Having made them, she will also be less likely to throw them away indiscriminately. If all else fails then there’s always boarding school. Or adoption.
Dear Hillary,
I was standing at the urinal the other evening, in a hotel and looked over and saw a very important Thai dignitary at the urinal alongside. What is the correct thing to do under these circumstances? Should I wai?
Willy

Dear Willy,
You must be kidding. The correct protocol is to look away. Definitely do not wai unless you want to pee in his pocket.
Dear Hillary,
I do not smoke cigarettes, and I am getting tired of people saying, “Do you mind if I smoke?” and then just lighting up as if it were their ‘right’ to do so. I don’t like it, I don’t like the smell of smoke in my hair and clothes. How do you stop this?
Anti-smoking Aunty

Dear Anti-smoking Aunty,
There is much you can do. When the smoker drops the “Do you mind if I smoke?” into the conversation, you have to come straight back by saying, “Actually I do mind. It gives me very bad sinus and I don’t like the smell in my clothes. I’m sure there’s an area outside for smokers. Thank you.” You have not been rude, as the smoker had not been rude either by just lighting up without asking, but you will have firmly stated your position, and given the smoker a face-saving alternative.


Camera Class: Underwater photography

by Harry Flashman

With the floods that we have had recently, there is probably more than one camera that has gone underwater, and is now (hopefully) the subject of an insurance claim. However, there is truly another world beneath the surface.

One of the regular readers, who humorously signed himself as “Joe Fishman” wrote in to say, “You can take underwater images which are such great images of marine life unmatched with anything above the surface. And your photographic techniques are almost unlimited. A Garden of Eden for underwater photographers is lying close to our dear city: the corals of the inner and outer islands in front of Pattaya as well as those around the islands of Samae San near Sattahip. I’ve been an underwater photographer almost two years - an absolute amateur - and snorkel or dive these coral reefs on a weekly basis during the dry season. I’m quite sure that a number of people are also interested in learning more about the techniques of underwater photography in general and the possibilities around Pattaya in particular.”

Unfortunately Joe, many years ago I struck a bargain with sharks, those denizens of the deep with the amazing dentition. The deal was that I would not swim in their bath water, if they would refrain from swimming in mine. I have been true to my word, and they have also, with no dorsal fins seen anywhere near my jacuzzi. Hence my knowledge of underwater photography is restricted to shooting through the portholes of swimming pools!

However, with the advent of cheap underwater cameras these days (even disposable ones), you do not have to invest in a Nikonos to try getting a few shots beneath the surface.

What has to be remembered is that water (especially sea water), is 700 times more dense and 2000 times less transparent than air. Even though it may look crystal clear down there with the dugongs, it is not. It has been suggested to me that if you are using natural light (that is from the sun above the waves) then do not go lower than seven metres below the surface.

For these reasons, underwater photographers will use wide angle lenses, so that they have to be close to the subject, so there is then less water between the camera and the item being photographed. If it is a large fish with teeth, you need to be a knee tremblingly three metres from it to get a good shot. Far too close for me! Those that claim to know (and I do know a couple of underwater photographers who have neither been eaten or drowned) say that a focal length lens of between 28 mm and 15 mm (almost a ‘fish eye’) would be appropriate for 35 mm cameras.

Another tip given to me by the wet-suit and water-wings brigade is to take the meter reading on the surface and open up the aperture one f stop for every three metres depth.

Again when using sunlight, the best time of day is the exact opposite from the above the surface shooter. Forget early morning and late afternoon, as the sun’s rays get reflected away from the surface of the water. The best time is when the sun is directly overhead and the light penetrates the water more easily.

You may have also noticed that underwater shots can have strange colours. This is because the light becomes diffused as it travels through the water, and the different colours, which have different wavelengths, become absorbed at different rates (or depths). Red is the first to go and yellow is the last. The predominant colour is then usually bluish or greenish, which explains why underwater shots have that colour cast. You can counteract this by manipulation in the computer with your electronic paint brush.

However, whatever the technicalities, if you just want to try something different one weekend, buy one of the inexpensive throw-away waterproof cameras, stay just under the surface and see what you get. You will probably be delighted with the results. But if you are considering SCUBA diving with a speargun in one hand and a camera in the other, you will need much more specialized equipment!


Money Matters: FTSE Forecasts for 31st December 2004

Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.

The City’s leading equity strategists are now predicting that the FTSE100 index of leading shares will rise by just 6% in 2004. The relatively downbeat forecasts are in contrast to those issued at the start of the year when some of the leading investment banks, such as Nomura, were predicting the FTSE100 would end 2004 at well above 5,000. Merrill Lynch is the bank with the most pessimistic view of equities in 2004, with a forecast of 4,400 for the FTSE100. Deutsche Bank and UBS are the most bullish with predictions for the end of 2004 of 5,000. Deutsche Bank said, “The US has been growing more strongly than people thought possible and I think we are going to see a reasonable recovery. For the foreseeable future the market is set fair”.

Merrill Lynch said, “The UK will under-perform the rest of the world over the next 12 months if the economic recovery continues because of cyclical stocks in the FTSE”. The banks’ gloomy predictions come after the FTSE100 reached new highs in 2003 and its highest level since August 2002. Shares have recovered strongly over the last nine months rising by 34% since the low in March when the FTSE100 index fell to 3,287 – a fall of 53% from its peak of 6,930 in 1999.

Meanwhile a survey by Citywire, the financial publishing and date group, revealed that the UK’s top fund managers are deeply divided over whether the bear market is over. Some 53% said they thought the bear market was over, 18% argued that the market had further to fall while 29% said they did not know. A massive 94% expect to see positive returns from equities this year. Just one in three believes the market is undervalued.

Overall, our survey of all the leading investment banks’ strategists reveals an average prediction for the FTSE100 in 2004 of 4,400.

However our experience is that these institutions, which tend to offer to retail clients a choice of only equity or bond funds, have a vested interest in being overly optimistic, as this makes their funds more attractive to investors. Two years ago, several investment banks including Morgan Stanley, Schroder Salomon Smith Barney and Deutsche Bank all forecast the FTSE100 would end 2002 at above 6,000 – the market ended at 3,940. Predictions at the end of 2001 were even worse. None came within 1,000 points of the closing figure of 5,217 – their estimates ranged between 6,600 and 7,400. Therefore, we’re not so sure that reality has set in while more than half of the 2 out of every 3 managers who believe that the market is either fully valued or overvalued can believe, or can state that they believe that the market will climb this year.

We prefer to stand by the general principles that we issued in January, at which point our biggest concern was that issuing forecasts to 31.12.04 was rendered rather arbitrary, because however clear many aspects of the big picture might have seemed to be, the timing of the most significant event on the investment horizon, the shift to prolonged negative performance in the equity markets, was extremely hard to call because of the level of political intervention with elections looming in US, UK and Australia.

However the main features of the investment landscape to our mind, (as stated 6 months ago) are in the following sectors.

We see a dramatic reduction in disposable income of US consumers, lack of wage inflation and falling national wage product in the USA, and a major fall in US equity markets (most notably the NASDAQ) averaging up to 40% from the market peak, over the next 3-5 years.

For 2004 we expect to see a rally at the start of the year, and then remain largely range-bound until the start of a prolonged bear market, with a fall of around 10% over the year, although we’d emphasise that especially with regard to the NASDAQ, it could be far greater than this or it could be deferred until H105.

We see the beginning of a major fall in value US housing markets - around 15% on average, but exceeding 50% in parts of NYC - over the next 4-6 years; the continued fall of the Dollar against strong currencies, although marked by great volatility US interest rates are likely to spike significantly during the year but fall back again by the end of 2005 and this should be seen as a buying opportunity; a fall in the European markets in line with the US markets, although lower BETA markets like the FTSE might suffer only around half of the declines ultimately in the DJI, whereas higher BETA like the DAX are more likely comparable to the NASDAQ. In other words the UK market will outperform when the downturn comes, a mirror view of Merrill Lynch’s continuing bizarre take on the markets.

A major fall in the property markets in the UK, Ireland and Spain is likely as is an initial weakening and then subsequent strengthening of Euro against Pound and Dollar, but an ultimate weakening against Swiss Franc, which is likely to be the main beneficiary of uncertainty. UK and especially Euro zone interest rates will move up slightly, before easing again in 2005 and market anticipations of higher rates could present buying opportunities.

A major correction is expected in China on the back of a massive fall in exports to US by 2005, although China’s best hope is to be involved in the mergence of Japan from recession/below trend growth rates. Japan should see a decoupling whereby it emerges from deflation into a period of growth.

Some Asian currencies such as Singapore Dollar and Yen will be volatile but could ultimately strengthen. The Australian Dollar will take a beating when the Australian property sector starts to fall, but will outperform the US Dollar over the next year or 2 from that point onwards. The Australian equity market will be pulled both ways by the high prices of tangible assets but the reduced demand in China. The All-ordinaries will suffer to some extent, but should significantly outperform the US indices but also significantly under perform Japan. Australian bonds look an attractive proposition although prices would edge slightly down in the first half of 2004.

The above data and research was compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For more information please contact Graham Macdonald on graham@mbmg-international.com


Life in the Laugh Lane: I imagined I would be living alone

by Scott Jones

I recently moved to the countryside near Mae Jo. When I step outside to my kitchen and teak deck, I never know what creatures from the neighborhood or nearby marsh are currently visiting (or have visited and left their excremental calling cards). Chickens, ducks, geese, scrappy dogs, two black cats from hell, mice and their large cousins, a miniature vagrant horse, spiders a bit smaller than the horse but much faster, or an infinite number of ants, times two, give or take a million (or billion).

Toni or Tony? Toad size XXL…

One day I emerged, sans spectacles, to find a large, dark pile of poop in the middle of the floor. As I reached for the paper towels, sponge and cleaner, the poop hopped out of the kitchen and off the deck. Toad. Size XXL. Hopefully it likes ants.

The toad (or toads) has (or have) become (a) permanent resident(s). Moments after removing one toad from its home in my tool bin and carefully setting it in the bamboo stand near the deck, another toad magically appeared. Perhaps I should have kissed her (or him) in hopes of creating a beautiful (or handsome) princess (or prince). I introduced the two toads in the bamboo so they’d happily hop off into the sunset (the marsh) holding hands (Paws? Toes? Suction cups? What do toads hold?)

One of them (he or she) was back in the bin the next day, safely hidden under hammers, spanners and sponges. Maybe the other one (she or he) has a separate apartment somewhere in my bungalow. I’ve given them the androgynous name of Tony (or Toni) until I can find them together again and determine their sex. (Turn them over? Operate? Check their laundry?) I suspect they’ve taken up residence with me, a friendly farang, instead of neighboring Thai families where they’d probably be stuffed, skewered or stir-fried.

Now when I return late in the evening, Toni is normally up and out, waiting for me. Some men come home to a stunning, naked woman lounging on a bearskin rug or doing the dishes. I come home to a naked toad squatting on the tile floor or sitting in the sink. It’s definitely better than coming home to a wart-ridden wife who looks like a toad, who will not leave without a legal battle, large amounts of cash and the deed to your house. (And whom you cannot fling into the marsh, stuff, skewer or stir-fry.)

As I left home tonight to deliver this article, I grabbed my jacket from the chair and Toni fell out onto the floor. Since she’s confident she’s not going to BE dinner, she obviously wants me to take her out for dinner.




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