Heart to Heart  with Hillary

Camera Class:  by Harry Flashman

The Hitchhiker’s Guide to Videography

So you have a new video camera, or even a still camera that also takes videos. Is this a completely new ballgame? Not really, there are many similarities between still photography and videography. Essentially you are catching a moment in time, but the still photograph condenses that down to a split second in time, whilst a video is a collection of seconds, one after the other. However, try not to shoot ‘stills’ with a video camera and your videos will start to look professional immediately.
Lighting and exposure is very similar between the two genres. Good lighting produces a good final image, still or video. Making the subject the ‘hero’ in the shot is the same for still and video, so the walking in close rule applies to both.
Like all aspects of good camera work, you have to think about the end product before you begin to shoot. For the video photographer it is a case of working out the story line and then how to shoot the various elements in the story.
One of the ways you can pick the first time video user is the fact that the camera operator spends much time taking shots of still subjects. Having not made the mental adjustment from still photography, many minutes are taken up with a video of his wife standing by the front door of the hotel. That was a ‘still’ shot. With video, you film your wife checking out at the cashier’s desk, picking up her bags and walking towards the exit. Then you rush outside and the next footage is her coming out of the hotel and hailing a taxi. You have just shot a living ‘story’. A collection of split seconds placed end to end.
So where can you go to ‘learn’ this new art? Just as still photographers have photographs in books and magazines to study, the video photographer has a very ready source of informative examples to scrutinize. This is called TV! Sit down in front of the goggle box and see how the pros do it. Start to look critically at technique. Where was the camera, relative to the subject? Did they “zoom” in or was it one far shot and another close up to follow? How many times did the cameraman actually use the inbuilt zoom? You may be amazed to see how seldom!
Here are a few more “rules” which can help you produce better video. You should shoot people in full or three-quarter profile to let the viewers see both eyes. The one eyed effect does not look good. Again, look at TV. When two people are talking, the camera shoots over the shoulder of person one to shoot the second person face-on to the camera. When the first person replies, the shot is taken the other way, over the shoulder of the second person. You can also take shots of the person who is listening to the other speak. These are called ‘noddies’, because the person will be nodding while listening to the other speaker.
When shooting people, place the subject’s eyes one-third down from the top of the frame no matter the type of shot. It is that old rule of thirds from still photography again. Dead central is dead boring!
Another shot to avoid is one with large distances between people. Again, look at the soaps on TV. The people are really standing much closer than they would in real life (in each other’s personal space in fact), but if you have them a meter or so apart, you lose ‘contact’ in the video.
Focusing. This is a common problem with still cameras with Auto-Focus (AF), and 99 percent of video cameras are AF too. The magic eye in the camera focuses on a spot in the middle of the screen. When you are filming a couple, if the magic dot is not on one of the people, they will end up out of focus and the background perfectly sharp.
Application of these simple aspects of video photography will give you (and those who watch your videos) a much better end product, and a much more satisfying one for yourself to produce. It just takes practice.

Money Matters:  Paul Gambles MBMG International Ltd.

Running Scared, part 3

More on currencies
The main question with the Swiss franc is: whether, relative to the euro, the Swiss franc will remain more or less unscathed by a slowdown in the European economy. Again, there is the argument that the Swiss franc is currently overpriced and as Europe slows down then so must the Swiss franc. However, the Swiss economy does not have the same extreme problems as Ireland or Spain and, therefore, may well feel less of an impact in relation to the valuation of its currency to the USD and GBP. It is too close to call and there is no general clear picture of an evident currency cycle here.
This dichotomy is largely built around whether recession or inflation is the greatest danger for the Western economies. There are few places that have the luxury to be worried about only one problem. Japan is one of them. The Bank of Japan is also, obviously, watching inflation. But after years of deflation, a central price index pushing 1% is almost a relief! Indeed, sales at department stores recently jumped - because buyers, expecting inflation, decided they could get a better deal by loading up now (the “under the futon money” is starting to leak into the economy). This is not a surprise, and helps explain the out performance of the domestic aspects of the country’s stock market - just knowing where Japan stands would make the market look relatively attractive.
Unpredictability is the key word here and too many questions beginning with ‘if’ and ‘what’ overshadow the Japanese economy. If inflation continues at the same rate, what effect will this have upon the currency value and what will the Bank of Japan do with borrowing rates in order to slow down inflation? A stronger yen is a distinct possibility but the greater drama may play out in the Western currencies and then yen’s recovery might be relegated to being a sideshow.
Sometimes the hardest thing to do is to do nothing, and sitting in base currency is doing nothing in terms of currency attribution to either portfolios or loans. However, we would want a clearer picture before we felt able to make moves either way.
At the seminar, MBMG’s managing partner, Paul Gambles was asked “Where do you see the USD: GBP cross rate a year from now?” His reply was, “The higher probability is that USD will be the stronger but there are huge risks to the downside too. If you want me to name numbers then I’d give a range of anywhere between parity and $4 to the pound. That makes it impossible to make currency allocations with any confidence and, therefore, our advice for both assets and liabilities right now is to hold base currencies so that you know exactly where you stand.”
For the moment, every investor or multi currency mortgagee should consider investing almost exclusively in their base currency. We predicted that these conditions would come and we told people how to position for it (see old Pattaya Mail columns on the Pattaya Mail website). The fact we are saying that there are not any good currency calls right now, go safety first and hold base currency is not a negative, it’s a positive - that is what we strongly feel is the right position right now. When times are frightening, fear is a very healthy response! So, what does this mean for investors right now?
Investment
approaches
There are three approaches that we favour now:
1) Safety first - an element of sidelining and awaiting events so that the picture becomes clearer and we can respond - the danger with this is that you can miss the bottom. Our 50% allocation to Core Diversified is our main play to prevent that happening - Scott Campbell has identified some exceptional opportunities and it is certain that, in many cases, he WILL be too early on some of his moves. This is because the only way of being sure not to be late is to be too early.
2) Exploitative trading - buy way too cheap in the hope of selling a bit less cheap; the opportunities that exist right now are more to do with asset mispricing than with recovery. That is to say that we are not buying stocks on the basis that the stock market or parts of it will bounce back and we can sell at a profit once this happens. It is not clear to us that this will happen. Midas Special Situations, Berkshire Hathaway, GAA Q Fund and the Orbis equity fund range are all key satellite holdings of our own funds and all share a common philosophy; namely that they adapt the way that operate to different economic conditions - look for something that is selling at the wrong price (too cheap) and buy it until it sells at the right price.
This is a good approach now, which is why Scott is currently incorporating this into Core Diversified also. It does not mean that the prospects for an asset need to get better; it just means recognising that a specific situation has caused a pricing error and exploiting that.
A good example is UK commercial property - the fund prices are down by 50% - we expect that the property values will fall by 15-30%. Once it becomes clear how much they have fallen, the fund price and asset price will start to match each other. So, if we are right then we would make a gain of 40-70% (we pay 50 pence for units that have fallen 50% from 1.00 but the underlying properties are really worth 70-85 p. per unit - a gain of 20-35 p, on our 50 pence invested).
What if Scott’s wrong? Well, even if commercial property falls by 45%, we still net a 20% gain from this trade - only if property falls by more than 50% are we in trouble.
Commercial property is valued on the rental income relative to interest rates. In a falling interest rate environment property yields would have to fall to levels that are implausibly low in any conditions for there to be a fall of more than 50%.
Our proprietary calculations are that current and expected occupancy levels to fall to just 30% and to remain at that level indefinitely. Bearing in mind that government and quasi governments take up such a big chunk of central London commercial rentals then in that market this probably equates to something like 8 out of every 10 businesses or offices closing down completely.
To be continued…

The above data and research was compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For more information please contact Paul Gambles on [email protected]

Life in Chiang Mai: by Mark Whitman

Koh Chang: A holiday destination that remains unspoiled

Despite the many and real attractions of Chiang Mai, occasional breaks away are a necessity – something true of life in any city. Luckily, we have the mountains and I recently enjoyed an overnight stay at Chiang Dao, but there is still something about the sea and a limitless horizon. Sadly, even the delightful Hua Hin has been overbuilt in recent years and others places – seemingly paradise a couple of decades ago – have suffered far worse.
But, feeling celebratory on a fifth anniversary, my Thai partner and I decided to head south, via Bangkok to Trat and then to Koh Chang, which is approached from the airport by road and then by a pleasant ferry ride to the island of about 30 minutes. And here, one soon realises, is the reason for the unspoiled nature of this holiday resort – the airport is located on the mainland and long may it remain there!
The characteristically charming Bangkok Airways base serves the main town as well as holiday makers. So, unlike the disastrous influx that has befallen Koh Samui and much of the Phuket area, Koh Chang retains much of its charm, whilst still being the ‘jungle’ it once was.
Samui used to have something of the same charm, now all it has are high prices, overdevelopment and a water shortage. The once sweet airport has grown, and flights – including Thai Air – arrive from Pattaya, Bangkok, Phuket and elsewhere. A recipe for disaster and inflation.
Koh Chang is in fact easy to access, with daily flights from Bangkok and plenty of buses and road access, but the tiny extra effort in crossing by ferry stops the invasion. I seem to remember that this was a great help for ‘my’ island many years ago … not that Koh Chang is without development, and since this trip was a special occasion Nui and I stayed at the exceptionally comfortable but still unpretentious Emerald Cove Resort, which is part of the Amari group.
This is a low rise building – just three stories, which hopefully will remain the norm there, and, of course, it has direct access to the beach. And, if you can abide further clichés, a beach approached through beautiful grounds, boasting palms dotted around the crescent bay, which faces tiny unpopulated islands and offers the most perfect sunsets imaginable.
A tiny voice says, make the best of it, it doesn’t get much better. And a nagging echo adds, but how long will it last? Will the powers that be decide on an airport, will the number of new houses, (at present located around the ferry terminal), grow and will the present weekend influx of Thais arriving for short visits give way to more farangs?
Of course there is already development, and smart resorts such as Emerald Cove exist with their equally smart Thai and Italian restaurants, but they do not dominate the island. The main ‘entertainment’ area is at White Sands Beach, quite near the ferry. This is on the west side of the island and there are plenty of small holiday resorts and night life, mainly centred around the beach. There are the usual hideous artificial creations without which no built up section seems complete—but these are few in number.
A little further down there is Klong Phrao, with its easy access to the many waterfalls and nature reserves which are a great feature of the island. Carrying on round to the less populated eastern side requires transport, but there are plenty of motor bikes for hire and ‘taxis’ abound at prices a fifth of those on Samui or Phuket, or even Krabi.
Possibly the water lacks that extra colour and sparkle of the Andaman Sea, but a special attraction is its calm and inevitable warmth in the shallow bays. And, wonder of wonders, you don’t have to be resident at some grand hotel to attain access to the beaches. Here is still a part of Thailand – one of quite a few no doubt – which has not been taken over by an endless stream of luxury condos, villas and resorts. Let’s hope it remains that way.

Let's Go To The Movies: : Mark Gernpy

Now playing in Chiang Mai
Traitor: US Drama/Thriller – With Don Cheadle. Another serious look at the world of moral uncertainty amid the war on terror. I am a lot more fond of this movie than most reviewers. I think Don Cheadle gives another outstanding performance in this film – really a great person to watch. And I found the story very engrossing. Mixed or average reviews, but I suggest you give it a try.
Headless Family / Hua Luud Family: Thai Comedy – The usual, this time about a family that has a freak accident that leaves them able to detach their heads without ill effects.
Ha Taew: Thai Action/ Drama – A country boy returns home from a pilgrimage to find that people in his town are dying from unknown causes, possibly due to black magic. He determines to get to the bottom of the mystery, and save his town.
The House Bunny: US Comedy – About the travails of an ex-Playboy Bunny. Apparently it’s appallingly nauseous. I’m sorry, I just don’t have the heart to get involved in this nonsense. You’re on your own. Mixed or average reviews.
007 – Quantum of Solace: UK/US Action/ Adventure/ Thriller – Starring Daniel Craig and Judy Dench. Really a continuation of the 2006 Casino Royale, which was a reinvention of the James Bond film series for present-day audiences. Here, with a different director, I found the undertaking greatly diminished in charm and style and elegance, with the action sequences more mindless and muddled, the plot vastly more convoluted and confusing, but with much to still like if you’re a fan of Bond films. Generally favorable reviews.
Son of Rambow: France/ UK/ Germany Comedy/ Drama/ Family – In English & French with Thai subtitles. A gentle coming-of-age story about two boys set in an English village in the mid-1980s that involves a great deal of violence, mostly muted and dreamy, like a confrontation with a fearsome scarecrow that looks horrifying but is obviously not real. Generally favorable reviews.
Twentieth Century Boys: Japan Fantasy – A live-action film based on a wildly popular manga comic. The main character is Kenji, who once aimed to be a rock star but now works at a convenience store. He stumbles upon a cult behind a series of mysterious incidents that have bizarre similarities to a book that Kenji himself wrote as a child. An expensive Japanese extravaganza with many of Japan’s top stars. Unfortunately, in a Thai-dubbed version only, which is a real shame.
Coming Soon: Thai Horror – Another bloody scream-fest. This one is about a young projectionist who decides to help a friend illegally film a newly released horror movie, with dire consequences.
Tropic Thunder: US Comedy/ War – I heartily recommend this, but only for those not easily shocked. You might just have the best laughs you’ve had in years. Robert Downey, Jr. gives another amazing performance, this time playing a black. It’s about a group of actors who set out to make the biggest war film ever. It’s full of low comedy and much dirty talk. Rated R in the US for pervasive language including sexual references, violent content, and drug material. Directed by Ben Stiller. Generally favorable reviews.
Queens of Langkasuka: Thai Adventure/ Fantasy – Nonzee Nimibutr’s 200-million-baht historical action-fantasy, more than three years in the making, is for me an entertaining Thai blockbuster – big stars, loads of special effects, lavish costumes, and an exotic seaborne setting.
Painted Skin: China Action/ Fantasy – A love story centered on a vampire-like woman who eats the skins and hearts of her lovers in order to maintain her beauty. Adapted from an ancient Chinese ghost story, it is not a ghost story per se, in fact goes to great lengths to avoid being scary. This film is Thai-dubbed only/No English subtitles.
Scheduled for Nov 27
Twilight: US Vampire love – Already a phenomenon, somewhat akin to the Beatles frenzy on their first appearance in America! But for one person: heartthrob Robert Pattinson. In the story of Twilight, you have your against-the-odds teen love, your woman in peril, your vampires, and your cult following. And girls are getting injured in the mass near-rioting wherever Pattinson appears for book signings.
Teeth: US Comedy/ Horror – Directed by Mitchell Lichtenstein (son of Pop artist Roy). Dawn, a high school student, works hard at suppressing her budding sexuality in the local chastity group. A stranger to her own body, innocent Dawn discovers she has a toothed vagina when she becomes the object of violence. As she struggles to understand her anatomical uniqueness, Dawn experiences both the pitfalls and the power of being a living example of the vagina dentata myth. More enjoyable than I thought it would be, it is still pretty sick and unpleasant, and with the number of appendages that eventually litter the ground, I think Teeth bites off more than it can chew. Mixed or average reviews.

Don’t Miss in November!

November 26: The Philippine Educational Theatre Association, with the Wandering Moon Performing Group and Endless Journey unravel the mystery of Masks and Puppets in a performance-recital at Kad Suan Kaew complex, beginning at 7.30 p.m.
Free admission – sounds a lot of fun!
November 27: “This gut-busting and completely outrageous show should not be missed, with its hard-hitting in-your-face black comedy.” Yes, they’re referring to the “Eight Reindeer Monologues”, to be presented at ArtSpace on 7, 19/6 Sirimongalajahn Road, behind the Lotus Pang Suan Kaew Hotel by Chiang Mai’s own Gate Theater Group. Doors and bar open at 7 p.m., the show starts at 8.p.m. Suggested donation, 250 baht. For further info, call ArtSpace on 085-622-6607.
November 29: Winter Dreams Charity Party at the Ratilanna Riverside Resort- a gathering for friends and supporters of the Children’s Education Fund, under the umbrella of the New Life Foundation. The evening will be a gathering for the friends and supporters of the Children’s Education Fund. Dancing, music, fine food, silent auction and many raffle prizes await guests. Tickets are 999 baht, available from Somboon Suprasert, 053-801-252, Margaret Bhadungzong, 053-247-083, or Hope Watcharaprecha, 053-260-705. Please visit the website at www.grandmacares.org
November 30: The ever-popular Citylife Garden party in aid of the Rooftop Charity will take place at the Citylife gardens on Canal Road, with over 30 stalls selling jewellery, scarves, artwork, clothes and handbags, bric a brac, food and wine to solve all your Christmas shopping and catering headaches. Don’t miss this great opportunity to buy or pre-order your Christmas seasonal needs at the same time as having a fun day and helping the needy. Select from lovely gifts, cards and gift wrapping products to complete the job. Plus, of course, supporting many different charities and foundations who have free tables to promote their good works. If you have any unwanted clothes, electrical or other household items, it’s not too late to drop them off at the reception desk, Hillside 4 Condos.
December 1: Direct from London, UK, the Performance Exchange Theatre will stage “Shakespeare for Dummies”, a hilarious, fast-paced and totally fun performance, at the AUA Auditorium at 7 p.m.
December 5: The Gate Theater Group proudly presents as its third and final production of 2008 - Stephen Metcalfe’s beautifully told, timely story of love, loss, healing and hope, “Strange Snow”, featuring Robert Young, Nathan Kieffer, and Veronica Guarino. A (very) brief synopsis: “Strange snow falls on two young Vietnam veterans as they reunite for a fishing trip to make good on a long lost promise to an old friend.” The play will run Fridays and Saturdays through December 20 at the Studio Theater, 7th floor, Kad Suan Kaew shopping mall. Doors open at 7:00 p.m. with curtain at 7:30 p.m.

Bridge in Paradise : by Neil Robinson

This week and next, some famous bridge quotes. Starting with one of my favourites, a comment made by Jan Janitschke when his partner put down dummy:
“Where’s the hand you held during the auction?”
From Victor Mollo (writing in the character of Rueful Rabbit):
“Bridge is a great comfort in your old age. It also helps you get there faster.”
Now, a few from Alfred Sheinwold:
“It’s not enough to win the tricks that belong to you. Try also for some that belong to the opponents.”
“One advantage of bad bidding is that you get practice at playing atrocious contracts.”
“The real test of a bridge player isn’t in keeping out of trouble, but in escaping once he’s in it.”
And a similar thought from Alan Sontag:
“It is not the handling of difficult hands that makes a winning player. There aren’t enough of them. It is the ability to avoid messing up the easy ones.”
Now a few from Edgar Kaplan:
“Zia Mahmood gave himself some very good advice when he said ‘Stop’. But he paid no attention.”
“If you are a good enough player, you can get away with making mistakes because nobody will believe it.”
“That’s the story of my life - all my life, I’ve been setting up non-working endplays.”
And a couple of anonymous ones:
“I’d like a review of the bidding with all the original inflections.”
South: “Alert”
East: “Yes?”
South: “I’m requested to further misdescribe my hand.”
Send me your interesting hands or good quotes at: [email protected]