|
The Doctor's Consultation: by Dr. Iain Corness
Cheap drugs - Are they dangerous?
This week, let’s look at cheap (generic) drugs. Most people
here know that you can buy “brand name” medications, which tend to be
expensive, or you can buy “copy” drugs that tend to be cheap.
At the outset, let’s just clear up what generics is all about. What you have
to first realize is that all medications are chemicals, and somebody
‘invented’ it - these days, drugs are not naturally occurring substances.
The ‘Trade name’ for the chemical compounds is owned by the manufacturing
company, for example ‘Feldene’ is the compound piroxicam, or ‘Viagra’ which
is ‘sildenafil’. Feldene and Viagra are trade names, given to the chemical
compounds by the original manufacturer, while piroxicam and sildenafil are
generics.
When you buy Feldene, you are getting the piroxicam chemical as invented by
that manufacturer, with all the purity and quality controls that a major
manufacturer has to abide by. However, when you buy piroxicam tablets, these
can come from a little factory on a back street in Bangladesh or Pakistan,
with all the hygiene standards being applied that you may or may not like to
imagine! Likewise, your cheap blue diamonds, gentlemen, before you start
laughing!
The large pharmaceutical companies legitimately say that if they do not have
protection, they cannot recoup the cost of the development of the drug - in
some cases, multi millions of dollars, and then develop new ones. However,
if after it has been invented, Pakky Pills produce the drug cheaply after
zero costs have been outlaid for its research, this is obviously unfair.
In some ways it is worse than ‘copy CDs’ where the artist is not getting
paid for his work from the royalties coming from the sale of the CD. Sure
you get a cheap CD, but the artist has been ‘robbed’.
Through this minefield walks the medical profession. In the developed world,
on one side are the large pharmaceutical companies saying that they need the
sales to cover and sponsor future research, but on the other side stands the
government, saying that the public purse cannot afford these expensive
medications, when cheaper, but chemically the same, alternatives are
available. These two opposing sides have valid arguments that are quite
understandable.
In the developing world it is a little different. The end point consumer
does not have the money to buy the expensive original research
manufacturer’s tablets, and neither do the governments (who in most cases do
not have an all-encompassing health care systems).
To make it even more contentious, there are medications that could be called
‘essential’ for life. The ones that come immediately to mind are the AIDS
treatment drugs. Can you justify withholding treatment from the poor (people
or countries) just on price protectionism policies? Figures that have been
published in Thailand claim that the same medication is available at costs
to the consumers between 300,000 baht and 12,000 baht per year. For the
poor, one is affordable, one is not. For government or charity purses,
ditto.
My stance on generics falls between the two extremes. For non-essential
drugs I believe the original manufacturer deserves a patent period and
generics should not be sold within that time frame. During that time frame I
would prescribe by trade name only and not generic. This covers medications
such as yet another BP reducing tablet, of which there are scores, or
another non-earth shattering antibiotic. These are not essential as there
are many alternatives.
However, for essential medications, generics should be allowed and offered
to developing nations, and to the poor, even though this may be within the
time frame. In other words, let those who can afford it pay, and those who
cannot should be assisted by the manufacturer, who can make their own
generic equivalent, as well as licensing other manufacturers to make their
drug.
So where do you fit into all this? First make sure that the ‘copy’ drug does
contain what it is supposed to and that the drug is released from the
tablet/capsule in the strength indicated. Or let your doctor prescribe -
it’s much safer!
|
|
 |
The Doctor's Consultation: by Dr. Iain Corness
Still smoking?
When you think about it, rolling up dried plant leaves and
sticking them in your mouth and setting fire to the end of it sounds like a
pretty silly proposal, particularly when you know it is dangerous. Honestly,
you may as well stick lighted firecrackers up your fundamentum. At least
you’ll get a bang out of it!
I was actually recording some radio spots for the hospital, and when I
listened to them, one fact came out loud and strong. When listing ‘risk
factors’ for conditions such as heart attacks, cancer, strokes, blood clots,
diabetes, and the list goes on, “smoking” was coming up every time.
Unfortunately, when you start smoking, it becomes very difficult to stop
smoking. This is because smoking is not just a habit like chewing on a
pencil when concentrating. Smoking is an addiction. What you have to realize
is that Nicotine is more addictive than heroin. I know that’s probably hard
to believe, but that really is the crux of the matter. You take Nicotine
into all of your metabolic pathways until you “need” to have Nicotine to be
able to function. Nicotine becomes part of your metabolic chemical chains,
and they don’t work properly without it. Now you can see just why you feel
so dreadful when you go without cigarettes (nicotine) for any period of
time.
To give up cigarettes there are many, many ways, ranging from acupuncture,
hypnosis, the I Ching, acupressure, Nicotine Replacement Therapies (NRT),
chewing gum, patches, nasal spray and many others all the way through to
Cold Turkey. Hop onto the internet and you are besieged with offers, all of
which will make it ‘easy’ for you to stop smoking, and all of which will
cost you money!
Interestingly, all of the above methods need the smoker to become committed
to ceasing cigarettes. The success rate really hangs on that commitment.
Leaving aside hypnosis and acupuncture, about which I know very little, but
the good books tell me do not enjoy high success rates, let’s look at the
other methods. The majority rely on Nicotine Replacement Therapy (NRT). All
the gums and sprays do is to make Nicotine available for you in measured
doses - much like cigarettes do. You get the craving, you chew the gum. You
get the craving, you squirt the spray.
Patches are slightly different. They deliver the Nicotine slowly over a 12
or 24 hour period and are supposed to stop the craving before it happens.
But often do not.
After stabilizing on the NRT it is time to bring the dosage down, which is
the next hurdle at which many fall. The end result can be cigarette smoking
plus NRT - a potentially fatal combination. In fact, I strongly believe that
NRT should only be done under close medical supervision. Too much nicotine
can kill too!
So what is the best way? It’s called Cold Turkey. The proof is in the
numbers. There has been enough research done and the prime factor is that
the quitter has to be committed to the concept of becoming a non-smoker.
Doing it (quitting) for somebody else, because you lost a bet, because you
are being nagged into it by your wife, girlfriend, boyfriend is doomed to
failure, I am afraid. This is something which requires your total
commitment. 100 percent all the way. When I gave up smoking (yes, in my
teenage years nobody thought that smoking was bad for you. Smoking was being
cool and ‘adult’) I thought it would be a bad scene for a couple of days,
but then found that it was a couple of weeks of torture. Here I am almost
five decades later and I could begin smoking again tomorrow. It requires
dedication and commitment. Yours! No one else’s!
So, I admit that those who go Cold Turkey may go through a rough time with
withdrawals initially, but the majority are still non-smokers after one
year. The same cannot be said for the others. The “hard” way is ultimately
the best way.
You have to make the decision to quit. You set the day. You tell all your
friends that you are now a non-smoker - and you stick to it!
It’s the best decision you can make today!
|
|
Adoption Fair:
Care for Dogs is having two, big Adoption fairs coming up at the
Airport Plaza, on Sundays March 27th & April 3rd, from 11am-6pm! We
will have a wonderful group of young and adult doggies and kitties
available for adoption. All of the animals are vaccinated and, if
old enough, spayed. There are no adoption fees. Besides all the
adorable furry faces to kiss and play with, there will be stuffed
animals, Care for Dogs' t-shirts, magnets, and other beautiful items
available for sale to directly support our rescue efforts. Come out
and celebrate the friendship between man and his favorite companion!
www.carefordogs.org.
|
|
Salsa!
This sweetie is still a pup at 1 year. She is medium-sized and has a
short golden brown coat. She is playful, yet gentle and
affectionate. She is not dominant and gets along well with other
dogs. Adorable!
Contact the Care For Dogs shelter English (08 47 52 52 55) or Thai
language (08 69 13 87 01) email: [email protected] or visit
the website www.carefordogs.org
Heart to Heart
with Hillary
Dear Hillary,
Hardly a week goes by without the KOTW person wanting to tell us all
about how he lives in Thailand. I don’t know what you think about him,
but he seems to me to be more of a KOTM (Keeper Of The Money) person
than anything else. That seems to be his wife’s money too. I am ignoring
that he can’t spell (and I hope I haven’t made any errors with this
email, Hillary. If I have, forgive me). Is there some way we can raise
his watering hole level to a real bar, and not sitting on the steps
outside the 7-Eleven?
KOTS (Keeper Of The Sanity)
Dear KOTS,
Everything finally reaches its own level Petal, and if KOTW’s level is
sitting on the steps outside a 7-Eleven, then so be it. It is not up to
you or me to try and change these things. You will find that the course
of history cannot be changed by us mere mortals. He is to be pitied,
rather than scorned.
Dear Hillary,
Do you believe in free love? I cannot decide whether you are a prude, or
someone very liberated. Your replies are never consistent. Tell me where
you lie and make me happy.
Lover-Boy
Dear Lover-Boy,
I think that “Boy” is all you should use. I don’t think you have matured
enough yet to handle nudity, prudity or serendipity. However, in answer
to your query about free love, I do not believe in paying for it, though
at my age it is coming close! And where do I lie? On my bed, sweet
petunia. On my bed.
Dear Hillary,
Sorry I had to send this letter by motorcycle taxi, but I was afraid you
might recognize me if I delivered it by myself. As you will see when you
read it, my problem comes in trying to find out if my Thai GF is being
true and faithful to me, or maybe two-timing while I am away for six
weeks at a time (I work off-shore). I am suspicious because every time I
ring her it rings through, but then she rings me back 10 minutes later
and says she was having som tam and had left the phone in her handbag.
If I question this, she always has a girlfriend there who tells me that
they were having so much fun they didn’t hear the phone. She also needs
to know exactly the time I will get back to Thailand - makes me think
there is someone else in the house who has to vacate before I get back.
What do you think about me getting back early one month? I am getting
all screwed up inside, thinking about it all when off shore.
Sandman
Dear Sandman,
You did not tell me how long has your relationship been going. Is this
something new, or have you been together for years? There must be more
to it than just not picking up the phone when you ring. You have left
out too many details, Sandy. From what you have told me, there is
nothing to get worried about - but give me the full story. I don’t think
that getting back early would achieve much either. Even if there was
somebody in the house, they could be genuine relatives staying for a
couple of days. How would you know? There are private investigators if
you want to spend the money, but sit down first and look at the
situation and then make up your mind as to whether you really have a
problem, or is this something related to yourself and your attitudes and
expectations?
Dear Hillary,
My maid seems to be afraid of all time-saving appliances. I have tried
to show her how to use the simple microwave and the convection oven, but
she will not use either, despite smiling and saying she understands
every time. When we have people over for dinner she gets her sister and
auntie to come and help, and they sit on the floor of the kitchen with
her and prepare the food. I am terrified that one of my guests will see
this one day, even though the food is always very nice. How do I get
around this problem?
Marjorie
Dear Marjorie,
You really haven’t got a problem at all, Petal. As you say, your maid
cooks you very nice meals, so does it matter if she sits on the floor to
do it? I am sure that she cleans the kitchen floor too, so it will be
spotlessly clean. It is also very common for Thai people to call in
assistants, and family is always best, when they have to prepare for a
large party. If the food takes a little long in coming, just have some
savories and dips to ward off the hunger pangs in the guests, and relax
and enjoy. You will not change a Thai maid into a western short-order
cook, no matter how many times you show her the microwave! “Thai” means
“free” and maids need their freedom to cook the way they always have
done.
|
|
|
Heart to Heart
with Hillary
Dear Hillary,
Can you advise us (my wife and myself) as to what is the correct Thai
way to eat with a group of Thai people. We have been invited to join
some of the staff after work at a local restaurant, but we are just a
bit afraid of the spicy food and the hygiene at local restaurants.
Please tell us what is the etiquette and safe dishes to order.
George and Mildred
Dear George and Mildred,
Oooooh! Are you the same George and Mildred from the TV show about 20
years ago? Hillary gets some amazing and famous people in this column.
Oooooh, I am so honored!
You will find that the fare at local restaurants will tend to be spicy,
as that is to Thai taste, but there are many dishes without chilli. Just
ask the senior Thai person in the group to advise and some very mild
dishes will be brought to the table.
Thais will naturally share all the dishes with each other, and it does
give you an opportunity to try several different curries. These days
there is (usually) a serving spoon with each dish, so you don’t use the
personal spoon you eat with, so it is a bit more hygienic. All
stir-fries cooked on the spot are generally the best for hygiene, rather
than curries that have been sitting in open pots for a few hours.
Try to just go with the flow, Petals. The Thai staff will be more
nervous having you dining with them, than you will be eating with them.
Just remember to say “Aroy, aroy” which means you are enjoying the food
(even if you are not)!
Dear Hillary,
My Thai wife and I are so glad to see you have had some letters recently
showing the other (good) side of Thai marriages. Unfortunately, it is
the ones that are in it to clean out the foreigner’s bank account that
get all the space in the columns, not the ones who lead a perfectly
normal life in a perfectly normal relationship. There’s lots of us with
good marriages with girls who came from the bars. I don’t think you
should be as hard on the girls as you are, Hillary.
Jason
Dear Jason,
You are quite correct when you say that the everyday ‘good’ marriages
don’t get the same amount of articles printed as those which turn out to
be disasters. This is easily explained as this is an ‘agony aunt’
feature, and so the people who write to me for advice, are generally in
some sort of pain. People in good marriages aren’t in pain, so don’t
write in. However, I am very pleased to get your letter, Petal, and
those from the other two chaps a couple of weeks ago. Gives me faith in
human nature again. You have no idea just how depressed I can get some
days. Chocs and champers make the pain less.
Dear Hillary,
I am devastated. Valentine’s Day has been and gone and I didn’t get one
from anyone. Being a handsome man, I was sure that the postman would be
weighed down with cards and suchlike, but he either missed my mailbox,
or dropped my mail off in the klong because it must have been too heavy.
How was your Valentine’s Day, Hillary? I hope it was better than mine. I
feel that nobody loves me, and I don’t know why!
George
Dear Gorgeous George,
What a blow to the ego February 14 must have been for you! Not left
waiting at the altar, but left waiting at the letterbox. What a fate. Oh
my goodness! However, Hillary has the answer for you, my handsome Petal.
Next year send some cards to yourself and you can noisily take them out
after the postman has been, so everyone in the street knows you got
some. The only other way to go about filling the letterbox is to stop
being such a smug, self-opinionated bore, and people will start to like
you, and some may even send you a real Valentine’s Day card. How was my
day? Absolutely wonderful, stack of cards and flowers, though it was
somewhat strange - most of the cards were addressed to “George”. Where
exactly do you live? Close to my office?
Dear Hillary,
Agony aunts in other newspapers like “Ask Abby” get their photos
published with their advice column, but you have never shown us your
picture. Are you shy or are you malformed in some way? There’s been some
drawings of you, but we want the real deal. How about it, Hillary?
Ben
Dear Ben,
I do hope you are not THE Ben 10, because of you are, I’m a little old
for you, Ben. Now, you impudent young man, I am neither shy nor
malformed, but a picture with the column just wastes space. Anyway, a
young lady can’t take any risks these days by having people recognize
her. I remember when you could cross the street safely, but those days
have gone, unless you actually live in Nakhon Nowhere (population 15
people and 23 buffalo, but one died this week, so make that 22). Have
fun, Ben, but watch out for aliens!
|
|
|
Camera Class:
by Harry Flashman
Flashing in the daytime
Fill flash used to
get detail under vendor’s hat.
I have written many times about not using the
flash for low light pictures, but today I will
do a complete turn-around. Use the flash during
the daytime! This procedure is called
Fill-in-Flash, or Fill Flash.
Fill Flash is probably one of the best ways to
give life and sparkle to “people” shots, but
unfortunately is one of the least understood
concepts in photography. In fact, many people
are just so afraid of it they never try and
condemn themselves to dark, featureless
portraits or dreadful pictures full of bright
highlights and disastrously dark shadows.
Let us look a little harder at why fill-in flash
is required in the first place. Let’s start with
taking shots in the bright Thailand sun at
mid-day. It is all very well saying that you
should take shots in the early morning or late
afternoon, but many family gatherings are
lunchtime affairs. End result, big black shadows
where the eyes are supposed to be and an
appearance of bags under the eyes you could put
a change of clothes in.
The other time you are going to need a flash
fill is when the light (generally the sun) is
behind the person you are going to photograph.
The camera sets the exposure for the bright
background and the foreground then comes out so
dark you will hardly recognize anyone’s face.
With both of these shots, what you need is a
little burst of flash to fill in the shadows or
the underexposed areas of the shot. Another side
benefit is that there will be a bright “catch
light” in the eyes, which makes the portrait
much more alive.
With today’s automatic exposure cameras you must
understand that it doesn’t know what it is that
you are photographing. It doesn’t know that the
person’s face in the picture is the most
important item. All the camera brain can see is
a mixture of bright lights and dark areas and it
will give you an exposure to try and equalize
these out. Unfortunately, in conditions of high
contrast in the tropical sun, or back lit, the
end result will be underexposure of the part of
the photograph you want. It’s not the camera’s
fault - it just means you have to get smarter!
Fortunately, these days many compacts and SLR’s
do have the fill-in flash mode built in, but
many of you do not use it - or even realize that
you have this facility! Did you read the book
that came with the camera? If you have it - then
use it! Please do look, the shots you will get
back will be much better than you were getting
before.
Now, for those of you who have the whole kit and
caboodle - an SLR with an off-camera flash, this
last section is for you. The whole secret of
fill-in flash revolves around flash
synchronization speed. Some of the very latest,
and expensive cameras will synchronize flash and
shutter speed all the way through to 1/2000th of
a second or better, but the average SLR will
probably say that the synch speed is 1/125th or
even only 1/60th and it is this figure which
drives the exposure setting.
In practice, what you have to do is put the
camera on shutter priority, let’s say the
1/125th synch speed and then read off what the
resultant aperture setting is when metering the
subject’s face. Let’s imagine the camera meter
tells you that it will be f11. Now put the
camera in manual mode and fix the shutter at
1/125th and the aperture at f11.
Next step is to set the power of the flash gun,
measured in f stops. You do not want the flash
to overpower the natural light, so you set the
power to be one or two stops less than the
aperture you have set in the camera. In the
example, the camera is set on f11, so you set
the flash on f8 for one stop or f5.6 for two
stops.
Take the two shots at the different flash powers
and decide which effect is best and practice
with this technique for better photographs. You
will not be disappointed.
|
|
Camera Class:
by Harry Flashman
Photo projects for quiet Sundays
 I
am a great believer in photo projects to aid the weekend
photographer develop the ‘photographic eye’. There is so much
more to photography than just popping the shutter and moving on
to the next ‘record’ shot. Photo projects help you to develop a
theme and then you illustrate that theme, which is at least one
step towards professional results.
Take, for example, the local markets. In Thailand these local
markets are everywhere (and if you don’t know where your local
market is, ask your wife or maid) and carry a myriad of items.
The hard part is to isolate some of these items from others, but
is not difficult if you have a zoom facility on your compact
camera, or a zoom lens for your SLR. By shooting at a focal
length of more than 150 mm, and using an aperture of f4 or
wider, you will be able to separate the main subject from those
surrounding it. You will also be able to stand a reasonable
distance from the subject so you are less intrusive and are more
likely to get some good spontaneous photographs.
However, before you shoot anything, you should take a walk
around your market and make a note of suitable subjects that
will show a local market to a visitor to Thailand. Again, this
makes you think about how you will present the different
subjects.
 Items
that will come to your attention could include the BBQ
chicken/sausage vendors, with smoke trailing from the BBQ coals.
Try to backlight this subject - in other words, get the sun
behind the smoke and shoot “contre jour”. For these shots with
tricky lighting, it is always a good idea to bracket the
exposures, so try three shots at half a stop difference.
In markets, the vendors will often arrange their goods in an
attractive pattern to show to the prospective buyer. To get this
shot, move in close, and frame up very tightly, and review the
shot before taking too many of them.
Very often the attraction of the markets lies in the cheap
prices, so in your list of shots make sure you get some price
tags. Once more zoom in close and frame tightly and you will
have it for ever.
Lighting at open markets can be a little of a problem, but not
insurmountable. Try walking to the other side of the stall and
shooting from there. You should also try not to have the stall
or subject half in bright sun and half in shadow. There is just
to much of a difference between the two light intensities for
the camera to handle.
The photographs this week were all taken on one very pleasurable
Sunday afternoon. Try it yourself this weekend.
|
|
Money Matters: Paul Gambles
MBMG International Ltd.
Look East
Some investors may be hoping that the recent sell-off by
foreign investors on the Stock Exchange of Thailand - which was mainly driven by
reactions to China's economic policy decisions, profit taking, the border
dispute with Cambodia and rising fears that political tensions in Thailand could
overspill into street violence again - may cause a sustained depreciation of the
baht.
Since the start of December we have warned of fluctuations in the exchange rate
between the baht and the greenback, due to foreign fund flows in and out of the
Kingdom. We also emphasised that the recent strengthening of Thailand's currency
was no mere blip, instead marking a fundamental shift in the global economic
balance of power that was most clearly demonstrated by the role Asia played in
leading the recovery from the global financial crisis, but which dates back to
Asia's emergence from the problems that led to the crisis of 1997, whereas the
Western world is still dealing with its own excessive indebtedness.
So anyone hoping that any such fluctuations will rapidly mark a sustained return
to the good old days after the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, when Western
currencies enjoyed massive spending power in Thailand, needs to take a second
look.
In 1997, Thailand had an overheating economy which was fuelled by hot money, and
a bloated financial sector underpinned by a speculation-fuelled property market.
The house of cards collapsed rapidly and with massive effect, sending shock
waves throughout the region and beyond.
The key point is that the 1997 crash was the result of fundamental weaknesses in
Thailand and Southeast Asia's financial markets, which were dramatically exposed
once the rampant growth that defined the Tiger economies had become
unsustainable. This very much ties in with our belief in long term business
cycles which fall into four distinct parts, each typically lasting 15-20 years
and which, for Western readers, we tend to describe as spring, summer, autumn
and winter. Spring is when new businesses are set up, jobs created and trade
steadily starts to grow. Summer sees things blossom.
The rate of growth is increased by the use of leverage and this leads to
inflation running away. Higher interest rates to control inflation ultimately
lead to winter when slower rates of growth are no longer able to support the
higher interest rates and recession appears. The boom cycle has always ended in
bust to puncture the debt bubble. This was the case for Asia in the mid to late
'90s and for many other emerging economies, such as Latin America, where the
peso crisis preceded Asia's sequel.
Heavily dependent on IMF funding, Asia had to follow the bankers' textbook for
dealing with the bust part of the cycle.
The upside of the 1997 bitter pill was the implementation of better regulations
and practices which strengthened financial systems and reduced government debt
throughout the region. Exports then boomed due to the increased strength of
buyer currencies in the northern hemisphere, giving birth to a host of new
industries which in turn drove local development and increased consumer spending
power. In short, Asia cleaned its house and was able to fast-track its recovery
on the back of spending by Western consumers, business and governments.
But the excessive largesse and greed that denoted the so-called Casino
Capitalism of the USA and Europe resulted in the 2008 global financial crisis.
We have seen the onset of economic adjustment in the traditional economic
powerhouses of the world beleaguered by weak production, high unemployment, an
ageing population and massive national debt.
However, the Western economies have eschewed the traditional remedies that were
prescribed in Asia in favour of "experimental economics", a set of solutions
that have been tried in the past and have never worked but are now being
implemented in a much more extreme format, in case the reason for their failure
was that they were not done sufficiently vigorously in previous attempts.
Is it possible to know whether this time will be different? Clearly, judging by
the undecided economic debate among experts, the ordinary investor or baht user
will struggle to forecast the outcome.
People based in Thailand and remunerated in baht should focus on the local
currency for the long term. For residents, that means buying baht at the best
price. The baht should be expected to continue to strengthen over the long term
but there is a significant risk that we'll see a flight to the greenback at some
point in the near future thus presenting a better opportunity to sell dollars or
to buy baht at something like a 20 percent lower rate versus the dollar than
today. However, this is far from being a certainty.
As always, there is risk. But if you're looking to hold on to your baht for the
medium to long term trend to provide solid baht appreciation over the next
decade or so, the safer call may be to simply go with the expected long term.
Hedging against a baht correction is another option, but this requires expertise
in both timing and selecting the correct hedge. There are a number of products
in the market, such as Global Diversified Investment portfolios - we promote
Miton Optimal's Rhodium - which hedge in baht as well as most of the major
currencies and the Singapore dollar and are able to deliver global asset
performance with the ability to access offshore assets in baht. Also, there are
covered bond funds which currently yield about 7 percent a year in baht.
By taking exposure to globally diversified portfolios in this way baht investors
are able to diversify risk across global assets without taking currency risk.
Perhaps the investors facing the toughest decision now are those who live and
work locally but have their salaries, savings and investments in their national
currencies - eg, dollars or euros. For example, in the past four years the
spending power of British expats based in Thailand who are remunerated in
Sterling has declined by about 40 percent. Those earning in US dollars have seen
a decline of about one-third in the same period.
If you're in this boat and planning to stay in Thailand or the region for the
foreseeable future, then you need to take a position which gives you the most
bang for your baht. Holding on to Western currencies indefinitely is
increasingly unlikely to deliver this.
The golden rule is that your income-producing assets should be held in or hedged
to your currencies of expenditures.
Expats planning to return to their home countries could benefit from investing
in emerging market currencies now, assuming these will continue to appreciate at
a faster rate than dollars and euros.
As was recently pointed out in MBMG's 2011 outlook, "Gorillas in the Mist", the
currency wars of the last few years have increased volatility in the currency
markets but savvy investors should look to protect themselves against the risks
that this creates and to exploit the opportunities.
A survey by Lloyds-TSB International last year found that over 80 percent of UK
expats still hold their savings in Sterling. This seems to be out of habit
rather than any conscious decision. Unless they definitely plan to return to the
UK the consequences of this bad habit could prove to be very expensive. For
expatriates in Asia who can witness the rebalancing of global economic power
first hand, this is an issue about which they should be much more aware.
|
The above data and research was
compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG
International Ltd nor its officers can accept any liability for any
errors or omissions in the above article nor bear any responsibility for
any losses achieved as a result of any actions taken or not taken as a
consequence of reading the above article. For more information please
contact Paul Gambles on [email protected] |
|
|
Money Matters: Paul Gambles
MBMG International Ltd.
The New World Order, part 2
So, why are things looking so rosy for the Emerging Markets
and developing countries? Two very important factors are population growth and
productivity.
The rise in productivity is a natural progression and not exactly difficult to
achieve. To begin with the old, developed, countries are exporting their
expertise to the Emerging Market ones so they can make better profit margins.
However, the knowledge does not stay within but gets out. People then improve
what has been brought into the country and then send it back to the Old World
and/or keep it for themselves so as to improve the local community. The perfect
example of this is broadband. This was brought to South Korea by America but the
latter now has a broadband speed which is less than ten percent of that of the
former.
Another important factor is the fact that the Emerging Markets are finding
themselves at the start of the larger economic development cycle. This means
there are many investment opportunities for capital to be allocated against thus
resulting in the opportunity for these countries to manage quick economic growth
and, thereby, development. This then leads to the continuous loop as quoted by
Miton, “Investment spending creates employment which in turn boosts income
growth and subsequently consumption. This then further stimulates investment
spending, and so on. It is only once the number of easily exploitable investment
opportunities starts to diminish, that economies slow and move on to the growth
paths typically experienced by the mature economies of today’s world.”
Despite the last bit, Emerging Markets still have a lot going for them:
* EM debt ratios and fiscal deficits are less than half the level of those in
developed countries.
* Average debt to GDP for EM economies stands at only 33% compared to 104% of
GDP for DM in 2013.
* Since early 2008 DM have experienced 25 sovereign downgrades, compared with 21
upgrades in emerging markets in 2010.
* Growing differential in favour of emerging markets - 5.8% for emerging markets
vs advanced economies potential growth of 1.6%.
* “We can rely on stimulating domestic demand to stabilise and further grow the
Chinese economy,” Premier Wen Jiabao, Bloomberg, 4 October, 2010.
Nonetheless, anyone who invests in Emerging Markets must not lie back too much
as there are risks which are not so apparent as they are in the Old Developed
World. For a start, it is a lot harder for an investor who is not familiar with
these markets to find a company that they will feel comfortable with. This is
because the economies of these countries are comparatively immature when
compared to those of the developed world and so the natural course of who
survives and who is killed off has not yet been completed. There is also the
issue of transparency and good governance. This is taken for granted in
economies which are fully developed but it cannot be taken do in those of the
Emerging Markets.
Despite the potential pitfalls, however, there is good money to be made from the
Emerging Markets and the risk/reward ratio looks quite good. Without doubt,
there will be volatility but the trend will be upward. Any short term hiccups
are only for day traders to worry about. People who are in it for the long term
should not lose any sleep over it. The continued low interest rates in the West
will continue to encourage more money towards the Emerging Markets and until
this changes and volatility hits unacceptable levels then the New World Order
should definitely be part of your portfolio.
|
The above data and research was
compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG
International Ltd nor its officers can accept any liability for any
errors or omissions in the above article nor bear any responsibility for
any losses achieved as a result of any actions taken or not taken as a
consequence of reading the above article. For more information please
contact Paul Gambles on [email protected] |
|
|
MAIL OPINION:
By Shana Kongmun
Spelling bees and shoes
I was recently honored with an invitation from the Rotary Club Chiang Mai
North to officiate a spelling bee, enunciate? We discussed the correct word
and couldn’t really quite come up with an answer. To our British friends, a
spelling bee is simply a spelling contest where, in this case, students from
11 Municipal schools had to spell an English word after to listening to me
pronounce it.
Something that proved rather difficult for many students as they had never
really heard a native English speaker actually speak the words. Puzzle
proved to be tough but every single kid got coconut right. Easy to pronounce
and easy to figure out.
Most of these children come from poorer families and as such, don’t
necessarily have every opportunity offered to those from the wealthier
schools. Such as access to shoes. The Rotary Club members were quite
concerned that several of the students did not have any shoes and are now
talking about raising funds to buy shoes for the children at schools around
the city. Certainly an admirable goal.
But, the truth is, kids can live without shoes. It may affect their feet but
it won’t affect their lives like going without a decent English speaking
teacher will do. It’s a sad fact that these schools cannot afford to hire
native English speaking teachers to give their students the exposure they
need to learn English properly.
It’s also a sad fact that Chiang Mai has many retired native English
speaking people who would love to volunteer their time and energy to helping
these kids but cannot because they are on retirement visas that do not allow
them to work, even volunteer work for free. I realize these policies are
formulated at a much higher level than Chiang Mai but it seems to me a
foolish waste of a very valuable resource to let these people’s skills and
talents go to waste.
These retirees are not going to be taking a job from someone since these
schools cannot afford to hire teachers. And the truth is, they would love to
be able to help these underprivileged kids but most are afraid they will
lose their visas and be forced out of the country should they do so.
Perhaps a concerted effort from local and provincial levels to the
authorities that be in Bangkok could offer some changes, for surely it is in
everyone’s best interest? The future of this country, like everywhere, lies
in the children and it seems that Thailand should offer its children every
possible opportunity.
|
|
How does your garden grow?:
By Eric Danell,Dokmai Garden
Are there any Thai willows?
Willows are quite conspicuous in Europe, often planted near ponds and
streams. The bark is also an original source of aspirin (salicylic acid,
after the genus name Salix, Salicaceae), a folk medicine with proven
medicinal effects by reducing fever, head ache and to prevent heart attacks.
Many settlers here in Chiang Mai may have a romantic childhood memory of a
meandering stream bordered with weeping willows – are there any tropical
substitutes? Yes! Here in Lanna you can find the native Salix tetrasperma
growing along streams. It is currently in blossom, but like with so many
other indigenous Thai plants, you can hardly buy it anywhere, as the trade
and current garden fashion promotes imports, mainly South American plants.
The medicinal use of willow is not confined to Europe, as the Thais found
the same properties in their willow. Its range encompasses India to the
Philippines. The timber is too soft for any serious construction.
Like so many other willows, this is a fast growing tree reaching 15-20 m,
although my experience from Dokmai garden is that you may have to watch out
for butterfly larvae feeding on it. At first I was content having clouds of
the beautifully orange Leopard butterfly (Phalantha phalantha) around it,
but the willow kept losing its leaves and growth ceased so eventually I
transferred the larvae to a mango which may do as food too.
If you manage to find a Thai willow seedling you can plant it in a moist
section, or irrigate it when it gets dry. It is actually a good plant for
preventing soil erosion. Another option is to take woody cuttings of a
mature tree, plant the cuttings in compost or sand, keep watering until new
leaves emerge and then plant it. I have had limited success with this
technique.
Another willow is Salix babylonica which is native to southern China. It is
sometimes planted in Southeast Asian gardens, and can be distinguished from
S. tetrasperma by its much narrower elaves (less than 2 cm).
www.dokmaigarden.co.th. www.dokmaidogma.wordpress.com.
How does your garden grow?:
By Eric Danell,Dokmai Garden
Fire in Chiang Mai
A Chiang Mai gardener's reality. This was four
meters from our Hibiscus hedge,
and no water pumps working due to an
intentional electricity cut.
For a while I was optimistic that there was a trend in less fires this year.
During the past few days the arsonists caught up with their reputation. Of
course, the Chiang Mai lowlands are fire-prone habitats, but natural fires
would occur once every 5-15 years, not every year at the same spot like now.
I have tried to be understanding, thinking that poor people may not know
better, or that poor people can not pay for workers or gasoline to mow the
weeds. However, in the even poorer Isaan in Northeastern Thailand people do
not burn like in the Stone Age, they are open to the Thai researchers’
advice and the Isaan air quality is as good as European standards. Therefore
I have to accept the fact that it is utter stubbornness that keeps Chiang
Mai wrapped in carcinogenic smoke, driving tourists and their dollars away
from town.
One day in early March the Hang Dong electric company cut the electricity to
make an electrical installation for seven hours at temperatures peaking at
+37°C! This is a time when the fire hazard is classified as ’Extreme’, and
we should need our electrical water pumps to save our buildings. Indeed,
that day we had two roaring fires nearby, and many neighbouring lands were
damaged. At Dokmai Garden we were lucky having the wind from the east, so
smoke and heat went away. I do wonder what is going on in governmental
officials’ minds when they turn off the electricity for seven hours during
the hot season? We got a notice one day ahead, but such a serious
electricity cut would need a week of preparations, or should preferably be
postponed until the rainy season. Rich people can always replace their
ruined wines and sirloins, or turn on their back-up systems, but the local
villagers were quite upset, remarking that hundreds of families’ milk and
minced meat would be spoilt, and some lost a day’s income because they were
forced to stay at home from work to guard their property against the fires.
www.dokmaigarden.co.th. www.dokmaidogma.wordpress.com.
How does your garden grow?:
By Eric Danell,Dokmai Garden
Papilionanthe teres – a grandfather of so many ornamental orchids
The national flower of Singapore is ’Vanda Miss Joaquim’. It is a beautiful
hybrid that appeared after a spontaneous crossing of Papilionanthe
hookeriana and P. teres in a Singapore garden. For a city-nation like
Singapore, a man-made orchid could very well be selected as the national
flower.
One if its parents, Papilionanthe teres, is a natural orchid native to
India, Burma, Thailand, Vietnam and Laos. This means it is a monsoon orchid,
and therefore fit for the Chiang Mai climate. It has been used in many
crossings to make new orchid varieties. A peculiar trait with this orchid is
that it is an intermediate between a terrestrial orchid and a tree
(epiphytic) orchid. Like with Vanilla orchids, you should plant the lower
part of this orchid in the ground, and let it trail up the trunk of a tree.
It can reach two meters. The cylindrical tapering leaves (called terete in
botany language, hence the Latin name ’teres’) indicate that this species
can endure sun. Indeed you should select a deciduous tree, as sunshine
stimulates blossom. At Dokmai Garden we have recently taken several
cuttings, ca 30 cm long, from a mother plant and transplanted them to the
bases of teak trees. The cuttings began making flowers instantly.
After this initial planting, you do not have to worry about any other care,
but let the orchid follow the rythm of our monsoon climate, keeping it dry
in the dry season. Lazy man’s garden can be spectacular!
www.dokmaigarden.co.th. www.dokmaidogma.wordpress.com.
|
|
Day Tripper: Mae Taeng valley waterfall
The calcium carbonate deposited on the rocks
from the spring makes it glow white in the sun.
By Heather Allen
Even in the heat of the summer this spring fed waterfall has cool water
flowing down the white rocks. The leafy green forest thrives here and
the peacefulness of the place is punctuated with the laughter of the
children who visit this waterfall and love to climb down the falls.
At first glance, it seemed slippery, but, shamed into pulling off my
shoes and joining in after seeing a smiling little boy that couldn’t
have been more than 4 or 5 cheerfully frolicking around, I found the
rocks surprisingly easy to climb. The rather porous rocks covered in
calcium carbonate made for a good grip and the only pitfall was the
occasional sinkhole in the falls. But, with phone firmly grasped
overhead, and a careful treading around the holes, I managed to keep all
but my feet and ankles dry. The same couldn’t be said for the kids who
eagerly slid down the falls, to climb back up and do it again. Or lay on
the rocks to feel the cool water rushing over them.
The falls are fed by a beautiful spring with a pool that is beautiful in
its own right, called the Spring of 7 Colors or Nam Phu Jet Si, the pool
showed emerald green depths flecked with shiny bits we guessed were mica
or pyrite but turned out to be calcium carbonate which the water is rich
in. Many Thais, elderly and young alike, used the scoop to get water
from the spring and carefully bathe their feet in it. I hesitated to ask
the purpose but since so many did it, I am sure there was a reason.
Perhaps they feel the mineral rich waters have healing powers.
There is a cave temple further in, but we didn’t manage to make the
hike. I plan on going back again to bathe my own feet after making the
hike to the temple.
And where is this wondrous place? Bua Thong Waterfall can be found about
45 km outside Chiang Mai on the road to Phrao - highway 1001.
The rocks
give a good grip much to the enjoyment of these little boys.
The legend
associated with the pool is posted nearby,
be sure take the time to read it before scooping some water out for
yourself.
|
|
|
