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The Doctor's Consultation: by Dr. Iain Corness
You never had it so good
A friend of mine is in hospital in the UK. He has been
there for three weeks, but he should not have been there. My mother was in
hospital in the UK for five weeks, but she should not have been there. Why?
Because she was merely taking up a bed because the doctors in charge of her
case had not yet made a diagnosis, so she must stay in for further tests. My
friend was also waiting for procedures, waiting for results and waiting for
the medical fraternity to tell him what was next.
All of the above sounds quite reasonable, until you find out that to have an
echocardiogram there is a wait of several days, and another wait for the
results. Ditto for a colonoscopy. Ditto for blood tests. Ditto for anything
else, but not including bed pans, which can be delivered reasonably
promptly, I am assured by my mother.
I did manage to talk to my mother in her hospital bed. It is quite simple
really. You ring the hospital and then get the telephone number of the ward
she is in, as they cannot transfer your call, as there is some problem with
the switchboard. Then you ring the ward directly, and the nurse will give
you the telephone number of the phone they take to the bedside. “But please
wait a few minutes, so we can take it to her while she waits for your call.
You’re lucky today, the phone wasn’t working last week.” So eventually you
do get to speak to each other.
In the chat, I find out that mother had a fall while in hospital and has
hurt her hip. She cannot get about and now has to use a Zimmer hopper.
Previously she could walk normally. I asked if she had had an X-Ray of the
hip. Negative.
I rang and after two days managed to speak to the doctor looking after my
mother. He agreed that an X-Ray of the hip would be in order, so he promised
he would arrange it. Of course that took a couple of days, and the results
likewise, but he assures me there was no fracture. I wish I could have as
much faith in his diagnostic ability with X-Rays as he has. It would have
been nice to get the hospital in the UK to email me the digital X-Rays for
my radiologists here to look at, and also to my radiologist son in
Australia. Unfortunately, this was not possible, and the treating doctor did
not know if the hospital had an email address. I shouldn’t complain, as in
1815 when they laid the foundation stone for the hospital, the UK was a
little busy celebrating the Battle of Waterloo to worry about emails.
But back to mother occupying a bed in the UK for five weeks. The biggest
hold-up seems to be the fact that the cardiologist hadn’t seen her, and it
is he who wants further tests. To bring you right up to date, mother has had
a series of ‘fainting’ attacks causing the falls. I asked the treating
doctor why mother was yet to see the ‘Great Man’ and was told that he had
been on holidays, there was Easter, and there was only one cardiologist. So
mother (and I) were left waiting.
In one of the hospitals in the Bangkok Hospital group, the entire process
would have taken three days at the outside. Living here, you never had it so
good!
By the way, the Bangkok Hospital group has added a new hospital to its
network; this one in Hua Hin. It has already started to treat out-patients
and on April 6th will open an in-patient department with 50 beds, operating
rooms and an Intensive Care unit.
Hua Hin, with its large number of ex-pat retirees has always been a gap in
the Bangkok Hospital network and the local ex-pat community is very pleased
that it has opened. So, if you are in Hua Hin and need medical care to a
similar level of care as you are used to in the Bangkok Hospital network
elsewhere, it is now available in Hua Hin. Telephone 032 616 800 or via the
Contact Center 1719.
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The Doctor's Consultation: by Dr. Iain Corness
Swallowing a camera
I had one of those great procedures where you swallow a
camera. That wonderful diagnostic procedure where, by the wonders of modern
technology, your friendly gastroenterologist can actually send a camera down
your oesophagus (esophagus if you come from the left hand side of the
Atlantic Ocean, or the right side of the Pacific Ocean), into your stomach
and then a sharp right and into your duodenum. In this case, my duodenum.
Now this was not a procedure that I decided to have upon a whim, or having
nothing better to do one Friday morning. On the Thursday evening I had eaten
some wonderfully spicy Spanish prawns, but before I had finished the main
course, I had this intense burning feeling in the area we doctors describe
as the epigastrium, but you would probably know as the ‘solar plexus’.
I excused myself and went to the toilet where I spat out what seemed like
liters of mucous that were coming up my oesophagus as the burning pain
continued unabated. I tried drinking some cold water, but not only would it
not go down, but it came straight up again. Resorting to the finger down the
throat, I was again unsuccessful, other than renewing the mucous tsunami.
Now I know my own body reasonably well (I’ve had it a long time), and I was
fairly confident in my diagnosis of oesophagitis, but since the symptoms
were still there the next morning, it was time to talk to the
gastroenterologist.
The time was set and I was told to change into the hospital gown and taken
through to the procedure room. There I had the choice of sedation or local
anaesthetic. I chose the local, preferring to know exactly what is happening
to my body at all times.
The actual procedure isn’t too bad. A little uncomfortable perhaps, but with
the local anaesthetic in the throat, the flexible tube and camera slips over
relatively easily. Dr Thitima kept up a running commentary on the state of
my never before viewed anatomical insides, and I was relieved to hear that
my problem was only an ulcer where my oesephagus went into the stomach. It
could have been worse. Ulcers are fixable.
Procedure over, you go to the recovery area where you are then monitored to
make sure everything is right before you get dressed. It was during this 10
minute wait that the problem with the ferret began.
For those who are not knowledgeable on ferrets, they are a domesticated
animal originally used for hunting rabbits. The California State Bird and
Mammal Conservation Program found that by 1996, approximately 800,000 or so
domestic ferrets were likely being kept as pets in the US. Goodness knows
how many pets there are in the world now, though some states in Australia
prohibit ferret keeping, along with public nudity and selling deep-fried
prawns on the beaches.
But back to my ferret. As opposed to poor old coyote, who never quite
manages to nail Road Runner, a ferret will pursue and catch his rabbit,
running through the rabbit warren. While lying on the stretcher, a strange
gurgling effect began happening in my insides. This is known as ‘borborygmi’
(that’s why my medical course took six years - it was learning to spell the
big words for the first four years) and I could follow the gurgles as they
ran through my small intestines. Like a ferret after a rabbit, they turned
left and hopped around the spleen, encircled the kidneys, turned hard right
at the bladder, sidestepped the appendix and bolted into the large bowel,
where it all seemed to go quiet.
I dressed and went to meet a patient, when suddenly I knew I had to break
wind. Or the ferret had caught the rabbit, or something similar. I excused
myself, and hastened to the toilet, anal sphincter at maximum closure, and
in the confines of the stall was able to let the gas go. I was in fear of
flying round the room backwards. As (Sir) Mick Jagger sang in ‘Jumping Jack
Flash’, “It’s a gas, gas, gas!” It certainly was.
So that’s what to expect if a gastroscopy is ordered for you. Some
discomfort, a quick diagnosis and a gaseous ferret unleashed. You have been
warned.
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Pookie
Hi! I’m Pookie, I’m about 18months old - a larger sized doggie with
a velvety coat and a goofy personality to match my brown spots. I’m
good with people and other dogs and I sure love my food! I’d love
you to take me home with you.
Contact the shelter English (08 47 52 52 55) or Thai language (08 69
13 87 01) Email: contact@carefordogs.org to make an appointment and
do just that! www.carefordogs.org
Heart to Heart
with Hillary
Say “No!” to bar fines
Hi Hillary,
I’ve been in Thailand many times and I have many good friends who work
in bars and I know many of the bar girls have a Thai boy friend who they
support and buy drugs for and most bar girls are loyal to the bar and to
the Thai people and I want every falang to know that they don’t have to
pay bar fine or money if they want a Thai girlfriend. Don’t waste your
time or money with Thai lady or any Thai who ask you for money just walk
away. I love Thailand and I think Thai people are very friendly and easy
going I’m going back soon again and not every bar girl is bad but never
send money, send it to some school or orphanage.
Dieter
Dear Dieter,
Does your advice about walking away from any Thai who asks you for money
extend to bus conductors? If that is the case, look at all the money I
can save on the (rare) trips to Bangkok! But jokes aside, my Petal, I
agree with you - just never hand over money (unless it is to the aged
Agony Aunt’s charity appeal - a very good cause administered by me) as
this is the wrong way to begin any relationship. One of my friends (I do
have more than one) who married a Thai lady said, “During our time when
we were going out together, she was the only woman who never asked me
for money.” There certainly is a lesson to be learned there, one that
many farangs have not fully understood. Mind you, since she controls the
family finances these days she’s got all the money! (Why can’t I find a
man like that?)
Anyone for a Tatt?
Dear Hillary
Let me say first of all that I really appreciate your column and your
replies to many farangs, some of them pretty stupid or ingenuous or just
suckers. I like your answers sometimes ironic or harsh and biting but
always hitting the nail on the head. But let me go on to my question.
Walking daily along Jomtien Beach I noticed that a remarkable number of
Farangs are totally tattooed with picturesque, lustful pictures.
Meanwhile in the evening I enjoy watching Historic, Planet or Geographic
TV channels. Lately Historic is programming a series for TV showing how
is life in jail even in a maximum security prison. All inmates have
their body entirely tattooed with funny or diabolical images.
Do you think dear Hillary that the above mentioned farangs are former
convicts happily or are only exhibitionists?
Have a good day,
Concerned Farang
Dear Concerned Farang,
We will never know, will we, my Petal? I suppose you could always go up
and ask them if they have ever done ‘time’, but that could be considered
a tad personal. You could always take a camera and say you are going to
publish a book on tattoos, and if they are merely exhibitionists they
will jump at the opportunity. If, however, they are escaped convicts,
they will probably jump on you and your camera. No, on reflection, you
are better off going to Naklua Beach.
Too old to throw a leg over?
Dear Hillary,
I am thinking of buying a motorbike to ride around the city, even though
it is many years since I last ‘threw my leg over’. I have a lot of
worries about this as I have heard that a lot of bikes are stolen and
end up crossing the border. What is your feeling about this?
Valentino
Dear Valentino,
Feelings about what, my motorcycling Petal? Whether you are still good
enough to throw the leg over, or whether your motorcycle will take its
destiny into its own handlebars and rush across the border? Really,
motorcycle riding is something that Ms. Hillary does not do as I
consider it far too dangerous. The 80 percent of road accidents are with
motorcycles, and that’s enough for me. I have no desire to become a
statistic.
Ladyboy love?
Dear Hillary,
You have been warning everyone about the dangers of falling in love with
bar girls, though I can see just how easy it is. They promise so much,
but then… Now here’s my problem. I am becoming very friendly with a
ladyboy, and I am sure we will end up “having an intimate relationship”
(there are some words you can’t use in a family newspaper, my Petal).
What I am wondering, is there any future in this sort of relationship?
Chuck
Dear Chuck,
You are asking the impossible question, Chuck. In any relationship, be
that M-F, F-F or M-M, the factors that control the future of the
relationship depend upon the feelings of the two individuals, and their
emotional stability and maturity. I do not see any difference between
the three types. I know of people in these three relationships which
have been steady for many years, but there are also just as many that do
not last. Go slow, Chuck, that is my advice right now. If you were
really sure, you wouldn’t be writing to me!
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Heart to Heart
with Hillary
Rellies from Hell
Dear Hillary,
Like many British expat pensioners I am living off the small pension I
get from the old country. This is enough for me and my lady as we don’t
have expensive tastes and eat at the local markets and such, and it has
been good for the last year. But now her two grownup kids have come to
stay with us from their village. It was going to be for a week, and then
it was two and then it was a month. It’s been three months now and they
just sit around and drink Thai whisky, don’t work and live off me. At
first I didn’t mind, but it’s costing me more than my pension and I
don’t like dipping into the bank account that’s supposed to be for
emergencies. I feel I have to do something. She tells me it is the Thai
way. You know these things, what should I do?
Ernie
Dear Ernie,
You certainly have to do something my Petal - you have to show them the
door! And ask them to close it on the way out! You are just being used.
Forget all this nonsense about Thai ways and the family, the way the
system works is that as soon as they are old enough the kids support the
old folks, not the other way round. Put your foot down and tell them
they either have to contribute and keep you in Thai whisky, or return to
their village.
Unchained melody
Dear Hillary,
When you read my letter (email) please don’t just discount it as being
another of “those” letters from bilked foreigners, but please read it
through as this one is genuine. Despite not wishing to have anything to
do with women from the ‘wrong side of the tracks’ (my idea of a joke),
six months ago I found that I was getting very fond of a young lady who
worked in a bar here. I come over three times a year for a week and in
between times we began to keep in touch via email, and I thought I was
beginning to understand something about the Thai culture. It got that
she would wait for me at the airport and see me off afterwards, and in
all ways looked after me very nicely (and not like the women back in the
US). Never once did she ask me for money, and I began to think that all
those letters I read before in your column showed just what mugs they
really were. This time it was different. I had found a gem. Last time I
came over I had given her a gold chain but this time she wasn’t wearing
it, so I asked why and she told me she had to pawn it to help pay the
mortgage for her father’s land. Then she said she didn’t have a job
anymore and couldn’t go back to the bar she worked in before because she
would lose face because she didn’t have the chain, and asked me to buy
her another one. I blew my top, I’m afraid and I know it’s a no-no in
Thailand and walked out leaving her in tears. Now I don’t know if I’ve
done the right thing. I am really feeling bad about all this. What do
you think, Hillary?
Wilbur
Dear Wilbur,
Dear me! Why can’t I meet people like you? You have been here for a
grand total of two weeks and you start throwing gold chains about like
you are fishing for tuna - except you are the fish on the end of the
chain, coming in hook, line and sinker! Let me assure you that you have
done the right thing - there’s a lot of land out there, and it’s all
under finance! Every last rai of it. Don’t finance any of it yourself.
How to make millions overnight
Dear Hillary,
Right now I just made $25 million, and all it will cost me is a fax.
Three separate emails in one day from people all over the world who have
‘over-invoiced’ accounts and have the surplus ready to be disbursed, or
have been left money after their father was unfortunately murdered, or
finally they were given money to use for a secret arms shipment and they
ran off with the cash. Grand total today of $92 million and they will
give me 25%. The senders of the good news were an accountant, a senior
minister and an African princess. Hillary, do people actually fall for
this? Surely if enough people bring this to everybody’s attention we can
stop the nonsense? Or do you believe these emails too?
Multi-millionaire
Dear Multi-millionaire,
The emails are real, it’s just the subject matter that is phony, Petal.
Unfortunately there are still people who get suckered in by the thought
of all that lovely money. It’s a very basic human emotion called Greed,
my Petal. The more zeros you put after the number, the greater the greed
and the bigger the sucker. Hillary doesn’t know what to do about the
unwanted emails, my in-box is stuffed with unforgettable offers,
millions of dollars and do I want to see women doing contortionist
activities with free access for three days? Like you, I have managed to
miss all these wonderful opportunities.
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Camera Class:
by Harry Flashman
Parky - the extraordinary showman
Norman Parkinson
has been dead
for many years,
but the
photographic
world is that
much poorer
without him. He
was a
photographer who
could lend his
hand to
photograph any
subject, be that
fashion,
portraiture,
reportage or
travel. His
version of the
Pirelli calendar
remains one of
the best, with
subtle reference
to the tyre
manufacturer
through the use
of the tread
pattern in each
of the 12 nudes.
He was a man who
gave great
thought to how
he would take
any shot - not
just working out
the exposure
details.
 Norman
Parkinson
However, I will
always remember
Norman Parkinson
for the famous
tale of his
apprenticeship
and his reaction
to the
‘superiors’ of
his day. He was
indentured to
Speaight of Bond
Street, the
‘Court’
photographer in
1931 when he was
eighteen years
old. Those were
the days when
you paid to be
allowed to work
under such
important
people, and
Parkinson’s fee
which he had to
pay was three
hundred pounds
to able to learn
from the ‘great
man’.
Speaight had
once
photographed
Kaiser Wilhelm
in the trenches
and would regale
his students
with the tale,
and how he used
a bed sheet to
reflect the
light into the
face of his
famous subject.
“What do you
think the
exposure was?”
he thundered at
Parkinson.
“About a
fortnight at
f8,” was his
cheeky reply.
That
quick-witted
response
epitomizes
Norman
Parkinson’s
approach to
photography as
well. Quick to
adapt and an
underlying sense
of humor.
After leaving
Speaight,
Parkinson set up
his own studio
in London. He
was twenty one
and willing to
experiment with
lighting and was
soon in demand
from the young
debutantes of
the day.
However,
Parkinson soon
felt hemmed in
by the confines
of his studio,
but when
Harper’s Bazaar
magazine
commissioned him
to photograph
hats out of
doors, Parkinson
was off.
With a hiatus
for the war
years where he
worked in aerial
reconnaissance,
Parkinson came
back with a rush
and worked for
the
international
Conde Nast
group, with the
bulk of his work
going into the
British and
American Vogue
magazines. He is
credited as
having had an
enormous
influence on
post war
American fashion
photography,
setting the
trend in that
country also in
using the
outdoors as the
backdrop.
His favorite way
of shooting
outdoors was
“contre jour”
(against the
light) and to
use a fill-in
flash to light
the foreground.
Parkinson did
this because
when you take a
shot with the
sun behind you,
there is no way
you can control
or modify the
light source,
but by using
fill-in flash he
would retain
total control,
balancing the
foreground
illumination
against the
light from
behind the
model, as
supplied by the
great celestial
lighting
technician. This
style of
photography I
have mentioned
many times in
these columns
and is
worthwhile
experimenting
with.
Like all true
professionals,
Parkinson
carried more
than one camera
on a shoot and
would have two
sets of medium
format cameras
(Hasselblads)
and another two
sets of 35 mm
cameras
(Nikons). Before
committing the
final scene to
film, he would
check all his
exposure
settings by
taking some
Polaroid instant
films. He even
said in 1981
that he had not
used an exposure
meter for over
twenty years.
Mind you, with
seasoned pros
such as
Parkinson, he
would have been
able to guess
the settings and
be spot on over
90 percent of
the time, though
“about a
fortnight at f8”
was only said in
jest.
Whilst he is
best remembered
for his fashion
work, Parkinson
was also a very
skilled portrait
photographer.
With regards to
this type of
work he said, “I
try to make
people look as
good as they’d
like to look,
and with luck a
shade better. If
I photograph a
woman then my
job is to make
her as beautiful
as it is
possible for her
to be. If I
photograph a
gnarled old man,
then I must make
him as
interesting as a
gnarled old man
can be,” Norman
Parkinson, a
true
professional. He
said that to be
a good
photographer you
need to be “a
journalist who
uses his nut.”
We can all still
learn from
Parky.
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Camera Class:
by Harry Flashman
Come alive with Still Life photography
One
aspect of photography, which is generally
ignored by the amateur, is ‘Still Life’. This is
a shame because shooting still life can be one
of the most amazingly creative and satisfying
aspects of photography. The ability to position
and light a subject to produce a pleasing result
can fill up an entire day. In fact, the pros can
take a couple of days to get a still life shot
just right. That’s right. A couple of days! No
exaggeration.
 Still
Life by Richard Sharabura.
You see, there are so many aspects to be covered
in still life photography. It is not just a case
of placing the subject on a sheet of paper and
pushing the button. Still life photography
teaches you every important aspect of the
artistic side of photography, as well as honing
up your basic photographic skills.
The first good thing about still life shots is
the subject doesn’t complain and tell you to
hurry up and, “Is my mascara smudged?” You can
also just pick up the subject and move it in any
direction to suit the shot. You don’t have to
ask for permission. Oh yes, there are many
advantages in having a silent subject!
Let us begin with lighting. The secret to all
still life shots is to have two light sources.
This can be daylight plus flash, two flashes,
electric lights, daylight and a mirror - but you
need two. One to basically light the subject and
the other to light the background.
Lighting the background isolates the subject
from the background and makes your subject the
“hero” in the shot.
The other secret in the lighting is to produce a
diffused light source. With un-diffused light,
you will get far too many distracting shadows,
which with small table-top objects can ruin the
overall effect. You can diffuse your lighting by
shining it through some scrim cloth, transparent
net curtain material or through some frosted
plexiglass - the sort of material they have over
fluoro lights, for example.
The next important item in still life
photography is your own eye. You will find there
are even books on the subject, but what you have
to do is to look at your table-top and arrange
the items in a manner that is pleasing to your
eye. Do you want them overlapping, or at some
distance from each other? Generally there is one
dominant item - bring it to the foreground and
then arrange the supporting items after that.
Some overlap generally works well.
Having got that far and you are now pleased with
the composition, you then have to look through
your camera. Help! It doesn’t look the same as
it did with the naked eye! What’s gone wrong? It
is because of the differences between the lens
and your eye’s focal length. You now have to
look through the camera and adjust the table-top
items to produce the pleasing composition you
saw with your own eye. Yes, this takes time. You
can see why the pros take so long!
After you have the composition to your
satisfaction - you have to light it. This is
where daylight or tungsten light becomes easier
than flash - at least with the sun’s (filtered)
rays or diffused tungsten you can see what you
are going to get. (In the pro studio, the flash
units have tungsten “modeling” lights so that
you can get the idea of how the flash will
illuminate the subject, and where the shadows
will lie before popping the shutter.)
Generally, I light the background first, then
bring in the foreground (subject) lighting,
carefully noting “spill” of one light source
into the area of the other. Again, this can take
hours! In fact, you can change the whole look of
a table-top scene just with the balance of
lighting used.
Remember too, that the exposure settings used in
the camera depend upon the foreground lighting
(not the background), and for most situations
(but not all) the background can be brighter
than the foreground, to “wash” it out a little.
But again this is experimentation.
No, Still Life photography is not easy, even
though it sounds straightforward. Perhaps it is
easier to help the model fix her mascara after
all!
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Money Matters: Paul Gambles
MBMG International Ltd.
Are Commodities Accommodating?
According to Barclays Capital, the emerging markets (EM)
requirements for the world’s natural resources are growing at such a rapid pace
that commodity prices are likely to become a lot more volatile. Amrita Sen, who
is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital, stated her opinion shortly after
food prices went through the roof and mining companies all over the world
announced good profits due to the growing demand from the EM - especially Asia.
Ms Sen was speaking at a recent event in London which announced BarCap’s 2011
Equity Gilt Study which is a long term study of the returns of financial assets.
The analysis shows that demand is so great that technology and production cannot
keep up. The report goes on, “The rise of India and China has completely altered
the face of the global economy. These economies have accounted for virtually all
of the demand growth in the past few years.”
Allan Conway of Schroders and who heads up their EM department said that
investors must get used to food crises happening more often and this is down to
the growing wealth of the people living in China and India. He carried on, “It
is likely to a recurring problem. This is the second food crisis in two years
and we will have to get used to this whenever there is bad weather or a bad
crop.”
Conway has also noted that the increasing price of staples has been one of the
reasons for the recent troubles in the Middle East. Barclays does not disagree,
“Resource scarcity is a crucial social, political and economic factor of our era
and will likely remain so for the foreseeable future.”
Going back to the Barclay’s report, it is also interesting to note that the
links between food and fuel have gone up with fifty percent of the rise in
worldwide corn consumption now being used for ethanol production.
This is not the only problem though. Sen believes that with the world wanting
more and more commodities it could have serious repercussions for the global
economy. Whilst admitting the fact that there was not much individual
consumption in China or India these two countries were “driving the commodity
market, and in a lot of cases global GDP is being influenced by them.”
Precious metals play an important part in the commodity markets as well. Dr.
Marc Faber sees that there could be short term volatility here, especially in
gold and silver, but this will only be in the short term. However, he is
forecasting the possibility of gold dropping to around USD1,200 or even less but
is not worried as the fiscal problems of America and yet more monetization will
soon see precious metals soaring again. He does raise the point that if gold
does fall to these prices it would be a good time to buy.
Like Sen, Faber is concerned about other commodities as well. He believes they
are well overbought. He thinks they are almost at a parabola stage, i.e. going
straight up. When this happens there is a chance they will head right back down.
Maybe not now but it will happen sometime just as they did in 2008.
According to Faber, this cycle usually happens when higher prices means supply
will improve thus giving the potential problem of causing the markets to fall.
It must be stated that the cycle for industrial commodities will be longer than
that of soft ones as it takes longer for production to materialise. Faber does
not care how much money the Fed is printing, he believe this cycle will happen
and there will be volatility in commodity markets.
Faber is not a fan of Quantitative Easing as he believes inflation has to happen
with more and more money coming into the world. The Fed thinks the best action
it can take is to expand the money supply to ease the public debt that stands at
four times the size of its economy. Therefore, even with the short term
volatility, precious metals are still well worth having in a portfolio.
Faber is not that impressed with T-bills or deposits. He also believes the Fed
will try and maintain its interest rate below that of inflation. This is so as
to try and avoid the worsening impact from the credit market collapse which
expanded to over three times the American GDP. Faber explained, “The US public
debt could be much higher if unfunded liabilities like Medicare are included.
There are not many options. The US will need to keep printing money for the time
being.”
Like Sen and Conway, Faber has worries about the Middle East but puts the
reasoning down to oil rather than soft commodities. With the rising demand for
black gold in EM and America he thinks there will be geo-political problems for
all oil producing countries. Whilst not good for the people of these countries
it will help the prices of commodities increase.
The general uncertainty of what is going on worries Faber, “If there is a war,
gold and silver would be desirable investments to hold. There will be times like
the 1990s until 2008 when gold outperformed stocks and vice versa in 2009. But
the key is flexibility. We don't know how the world will look in 10 years'
time.”
Without doubt, the world’s economies are in for interesting times over the next
few months and maybe even years. Like MitonOptimal, Faber believes there will be
a short term rebound in the US Dollar but this will not last long. Scott
Campbell believes it will not go into Q4. Faber says the value of the Greenback
has to go down as the Fed is more than likely to increase its printing of money
over and above the USD600 billion which they have already committed to. He says,
“Paper [money] will have less and less value with the exception of currencies
not printing money, considering what central banks plan to do. Inflation will be
an issue in Asia and the Western world. (But) I think governments around the
world will increase interest rates sufficiently to combat inflation.”
Finally, Faber is concerned that the slowdown of the Chinese economy may also
affect the world economies as it may lead to a reduction in the demand for
commodities and so affect the likes of Canada and Eastern Europe.
So, how accommodating are commodities? Well, they should definitely be a part of
a portfolio. Depending on how much volatility you are prepared to take will then
result in what percentage you decide to invest. In the long term though, with
careful nurturing, they will do well for you.
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The above data and research was
compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG
International Ltd nor its officers can accept any liability for any
errors or omissions in the above article nor bear any responsibility for
any losses achieved as a result of any actions taken or not taken as a
consequence of reading the above article. For more information please
contact Paul Gambles on paul@mbmg-international.com |
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Money Matters: Paul Gambles
MBMG International Ltd.
Absenteeism Portfolio Management
Today we have a special report from Scott Campbell - Managing
Director and Chief Investment Officer of MitonOptimal.
Marc Faber, the famed editor of The Doom, Boom and Gloom Report to which we
subscribe, was apparently moderating at an investment forum in Moscow recently
where he asked his fellow panelists, "If tomorrow you were supposed to go to
jail for 10 years and were allowed to make only one investment, which you would
not be able to touch for this period, what would you choose?" Considering his
panelists included Nouriel Roubini, Nassim Taleb, Hugh Hendry and Russell
Napier, the answers were pretty enlightening.
In addition, this week on fullermoney.com a subscriber asked the question of
what one should do when leaving a portfolio to a spouse upon death who has had
no involvement or interest over the past 40 years.
These answers make for interesting reading.
The answers to Faber’s question were: a basket of western multi-national stocks
which benefit from emerging markets (Roubini), land in Lebanon! (Taleb), large
high-return emerging market stocks (PIMCO EM fund manager), basket of Asian
currencies (Napier), tobacco stocks (Hendry) and gold (Faber himself).
We devised the charts on this page from Bloomberg to look at the past 2 ten year
periods and clearly picking the large under-performer of the previous period
would have rewarded handsomely. Gold and EM equity massively underperformed in
the 1990’s and Developed Equities (S&P500) in the 2000’s. We picked gold and EM
over the past ten years but now we agree with Roubin that a basket of western
multi-national high dividend stocks which will benefit from the emerging world
boom would be the place to be after a dismal past ten years.
The next question is more behavioural and subjective. "I know
my way around the investment world, but my wife has no interest. What happens
upon my death? Should I leave her with a portfolio of unmanaged stocks, mutual
funds or a money manager? All of these might be ok, but things change. The
obvious similarity with the above debate is that what may have worked for the
past 10 years may not work for the next 10. Also, as people get older their
investment objectives change.” Two important points came out the discussion for
me:
1. Succession planning to minimize tax implications is important but ensuring
that all family members sit down and understand the actual investment portfolio
and how it is to be managed is more important.
2. 30 years ago, income objectives were easily met by building a portfolio of
long dated western government bonds as runaway inflation peaked.
Today, those same investments are a massive avoid at the end of a long bull
market as deflation has worked its way through the system and the reflation
season begins again.
An income yield portfolio must incorporate commercial property and high yield
equities (which are more volatile) but will provide a growing income yield in
the face inflation over the next 30 years. This time period could be important
if American congressman Ron Paul is to believed, “We have so much unemployment,
it is so undercounted. The free market economists report that there is probably
22% of unemployment. They [the Fed] pumped in $4 trillion, they should have
added a lot of jobs, but how much did it cost us, and that of course is the
price inflation that will come. We are moving into another 30 year period where
we are going to see a reversal of interest rates, and we are going to see a
crashing of the bonds like we saw 30 years ago and it’s going to last a long,
long time. The Fed deserves the blame for the inflation, and for the
unemployment.”
Looking forward is vital. Jesse Livermore was one of the most outstandingly
successful traders of the early 20th Century, immortalised in Edwin Lefèvre’s
“Reminiscences of a Stock Operator”. On the few occasions when he lost money, it
was invariably because he chose to override his own rules. He said many
insightful things about the psychology of successful investing, but perhaps his
most pertinent observation was the following: “After spending many years in Wall
Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this:
it never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my
sitting. The big money is made by the sittin’ and the waitin’, not the
thinking.” He did not plan things differently when he decided to end his life,
"I seem to remember that Jesse Livermore, despite being an extremely active
trader, chose to put together a portfolio of high yielding rail and utility
shares for his wife before his suicide. I guess he knew that he would be trading
less actively in future.” Fullermoney.com
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The above data and research was
compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG
International Ltd nor its officers can accept any liability for any
errors or omissions in the above article nor bear any responsibility for
any losses achieved as a result of any actions taken or not taken as a
consequence of reading the above article. For more information please
contact Paul Gambles on paul@mbmg-international.com |
|
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Let's Go To The Movies:
by Mark Gernpy
Now playing in Chiang Mai through April
12
Source Code: US/ France, Mystery/ Romance/ Sci-Fi/ Thriller – A film
everyone seems to be raving about it. I can personally verify now that it’s
simply terrific in all ways as a thriller and mystery. It stars an excellent
Jake Gyllenhaal as a soldier who wakes up in the body of an unknown man and
discovers he's part of a mission to find the bomber of a Chicago commuter
train. A younger brother to Inception, it has the complex infrastructure of
top-tier science fiction. Gripping, well directed, well acted, highly
recommended. Generally favorable reviews.
Mindfulness and Murder / Sop mai ngiab: Thai, Crime/ Mystery – An
ex-cop Buddhist monk investigates a murder of a homeless youth in the
grounds of a Buddhist monastery in Bangkok. The police do little to
investigate, leaving Father Ananda - a former homicide detective - to try
and solve the crime. With the help of an orphaned boy, Ananda travels the
canals of the city to unravel the clues and catch the killer. Nicely
captures the mood and details of life in a temple.
Permanent Residence: Hong Kong, Drama/ Romance – Explores, in
complete abandon and full nudity, the life story of a gay young man who
pursues an impossible love with his straight boyfriend, and contemplates on
the mortality of his loved ones. Unrated in the US; 18+ in Thailand. In
English and Chinese (Cantonese) with English and Thai subtitles. At Vista
only.
Ha Zard: Thai, Comedy/ Drama – When a university of comedians is
facing a downturn and all its comedians are endangered, some comedy students
team up to save everyone’s careers. Has at least a cameo from every comic in
Thailand, plus excessive excrement and flatulence comedy routines – so very
popular.
The King’s Speech: UK/ Australia, Drama/ History – In my view a
beautiful motion picture, with everything you could wish for. Thanks to
Vista, we’re finally able to see this here. Oscars for best picture, best
director (Tom Hooper), and best actor (Colin Firth). Rated R in the US for
some language; 15+ in Thailand. Reviews: Universal acclaim. Vista only, and
only once a day, at 8 pm.
King Naresuan III: Naval Battle: Thai, Drama/ War – The chapter three
of four of the King Naresuan epic, continuing the story of Thai's king and
warrior in the Ayudhya era who fought against the invasion of Burmese troops
that aimed to overpower the Ayudhya Kingdom. The filming of the story of
King Naresuan began in 2002 and is still continuing on the huge set built in
Kanchanaburi (and which is open to the public). Nearly the whole army
garrison in Kanchanaburi is in the movie as extras, plus hundreds of
elephants, horses, and other animals. Sort of a 10-year public works project
for the province. The film is rated “P” for “Promote” – meaning the Thai
government has given it its seal of approval, and everyone should go see it.
The Bangkok Post’s critic, Kong Rithdee, said the “P” should rather stand
for “Pedestrian.” But it is spectacular – for all that money, it had better
be.
Hop: US, Animation/ Comedy/ Family – The funny and entertaining story
of the Easter Bunny's teen son and his quest to make a name for himself.
With a live-action James Marsden and cuddly-cute animated bunnies and
chicks. Mixed or average reviews. Vista version is Thai-dubbed only; Thai
and English versions at Airport Plaza.
Rango: US, Animation/ Action/ Comedy/ Family/ Western – An absolute
delight! Rango is your more or less ordinary chameleon who accidentally
winds up in the town of Dirt, a lawless outpost in the Wild West. Stars
Johnny Depp. Generally favorable reviews.
SuckSeed: Thai, Comedy/ Musical – A story of teenage boys who set up
their rock band called SuckSeed just to impress the girls. Has been very
popular, now at Vista only.
Vanishing on 7th Street: US, Horror/ Mystery/ Thriller – An
apocalyptic thriller/ horror about a mysterious, seemingly global blackout
that causes countless populations to simply vanish, leaving only their
clothes and possessions behind. A small handful of survivors band together
in a dimly-lit tavern on 7th Street, struggling to combat the horror. Long
sections build a nice sense of dread and mystery. With Hayden Christensen
and John Leguizamo. Rated R in the US for language. Mixed or average
reviews. At Vista only.
Gnomeo and Juliet 3D: (Shown in digital 3D) UK/ US, Animation/
Comedy/ Family/ Fantasy – A version of Shakespeare's play, set in the world
of warring garden gnomes. Gnomeo (voice of James McAvoy) and Juliet (voice
of Emily Blunt) have as many obstacles to overcome as their namesakes when
they are caught up in a feud between neighbors. Mixed or average reviews.
Airport Plaza only.
Sucker Punch: US/ Canada, Action/ Fantasy/ Thriller – The most imaginative
film since Inception, but you probably wouldn’t like it. A gritty, violent,
fantasy-based, primarily female-driven story. Generally unfavorable reviews.
At Vista only, now in Thai only.
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How does your garden grow?:
By Eric Danell,Dokmai Garden
Is there an important relationship between epiphytic orchids and birds?
The Vanda liouvillei (Photo Courtesy of Dokmai
Garden)
Yesterday at breakfast I saw a huge Black kite sailing in to Dokmai Garden
from the south. When it reached the centre it began circling, using thermal
winds to gain altitude. I like this kind of bird watching, a huge bird
moving slowly for several minutes, giving me plenty of time to observe
characters like the forked tail and white under-wing patches.
I also registered a new bird to Dokmai Garden in a mango: The
Golden-spectacled Warbler. It took me a lot of time to finally observe the
characteristic grey cap with two black stripes. This little bird was
constantly moving around in the crown, probably catching insects. While
observing this new bird species (number 80 in our list), I also observed
tailor birds, scaly-breasted munias, oriental magpie-robin and spotted dove.
I looked down at the Vanda liouvillei orchid which grows in the same tree,
about one meter up from the ground. It has over 200 flowers, in spite of no
nutrient additions. I kept thinking how on earth it gets the nitrogen up
there. The bark is fairly smooth, no other epiphytes apart from crustose
lichens. The literature usually suggests the epiphytic orchids sustain on
degrading cork cells of the bark, but to my knowledge cork or suberin is
exceptionally hard to break down and does not contain much mineral
nutrients. The abundance of birds and the flourishing orchid made me come up
with the hypothesis that in a healthy forest ecosystem, crowded with birds,
there will be plenty of bird droppings to support the orchids’ needs for
nitrogen (just imagine a chicken house). Such droppings may burn leaves, but
mostly the droppings would hit another branch. Morning dew and rain would
dissolve the bird droppings and a diluted nutrient cocktail would coat
branches and trunks, where the orchids’ aerial roots can pick up what they
need.
Is anyone aware of any ecological study comparing orchid health in a living
tree compared with orchid health on orchids growing on bark pieces in an
equally shaded area? In a nursery the orchid grower usually sprays NPK
21-21-21 every 2-4 weeks during the growth season, but nobody sprays NPK in
the forest. For the Orchid Ark this means we should absolutely focus on
keeping orchids in a woodland. Orchid ecology may encompass more essential
elements than fungal symbionts for seed germination and pollinators for
reproduction. Please let me know if anyone has read an actual article on
this issue. http://www.dokmaigarden.co.th/. info@dokmaigarden.co.th.
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Life in Chiang Mai:
By Colin Jarvis
Work Permit Confusion
I was sitting in a bar the other night, listening to some
good music being played by some first rate British musicians. I went to the
Gents and when I came back there was no band and no music. The band had been
arrested by police investigating the validity of the band members’ work
permits.
The British and American Consuls have been trying to clarify exactly when a
work permit is needed but they do not seem to be getting very far. In this
article I will put forward some simple rules that I think will help keep you
out of trouble and I will discuss, if they are willing, the details with the
appropriate authorities and report back to you.
I was surprised to discover, only a few weeks ago, that charity workers do
need a work permit; regardless of whether they receive pay or not. It would
appear that if they are not a Thai national and, let us say, they run a
jumble sale on behalf of the flood victims in the South of Thailand, they
will need a work permit. As will all the people who come to man the stands.
The first point to realise is that whether one is paid or not is irrelevant.
Another complication is that there are many different work permits for many
different activities. The cost of these varies depending on the likely
income generated. We should also remember that some activities are
prohibited. These include any form of manual work, agricultural work,
construction work, woodworking, working in a shop, hairdressing and beauty
treatments, and many, many others.
Another complication is that any work permit may be restricted so that, for
example, a musician may only be allowed to play in one specific venue.
It may be easier to understand when a work permit is required if one
understands the motivation behind the complicated work permit procedure.
Essentially, it seems to me, that these rules are simply designed to
preserve employment for Thai people and to remove foreign competition.
Indeed this is the purpose behind work permits in just about every country.
However, there is no doubt that the Thai system is more complicated than in
many other countries.
So what have we learned so far? We have learned that receiving payment is
irrelevant. We know that the purpose is to ensure that Thai people do not
have to face competition.
It seems fairly simple therefore that a work permit is going to be required
if one undertakes any activity that could be undertaken by a Thai national
and that they could get paid for it if payment was available.
So, if you cook a meal in your home, or do housework does this mean you need
a work permit? Could be, I am not entirely clear but I suspect no one is
going to worry about it.
If you mend or service your car should you have a work permit? Again the
answer could be yes as you are undertaking manual work. However, it is
possible that there may be an exception if you're working on your own
property.
I say this but I'm not that sure. I happen to enjoy making things out of
wood and have well equipped workshop. I do not sell anything I make and I
undertake projects entirely for my own pleasure, including, occasionally,
woodcarving.
The Thais do not have a word for workshop, such places are a factory as no
one would want to undertake such work for pleasure. The importance of the
"shed ", beloved of so many Westerners, is not understood in Thai culture. I
put a sign on my workshop saying it "Colin's factory". It was just a joke to
rebut the jokes I received for having such a facility. When the immigration
people came round to interview me for my married visa they strongly
suggested by take down the sign as it might cause me to be arrested. No
joke!
My conclusion is that if you do anything, outside your own property, that
some Thai could undertake and earn money for, then you need a work permit.
You will probably not be asked to get one unless you upset someone who then
telephones the police to complain about you.
A blind eye is turned in many situations but, because of the recent arrest
of some musicians, several performances with a charitable purpose behind
them, have had to be cancelled for the simple reason that no one wishes to
get out and sing or perform in public in case they are arrested. If one is
an amateur musician who plays three times a year for your favourite charity,
you still apparently need a work permit and not having one may leave you
liable for arrest.
So I shall pop down to see the appropriate people and discuss this with
them, if they are willing, and will probably have to organise several work
permits for myself. I will let you know the results soon.
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